WHY JUNO WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s funny. Because it manages the difficult trick of being funny and serious and heartbreaking all at once, and sometimes simultaneously. Because Diablo Cody is a hot young talent and people want to reward her. Because it’s a comedy and comedies tend to pick up undecided Academy voters late in the game over dramas. Because Jason Reitman did a good job. Because people are really impressed with Ellen Page.
WHY JUNO WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s kind of slight. Because Diablo Cody, while talented, is also considered by many – and not unfairly – to be somewhat precious and twee (hamburger phone? Really?). Because anybody who wants to reward Cody or Page or Reitman can vote for them in the appropriate categories. Because Cody and Page and Reitman aren’t even going to win their own categories, let alone contribute to winning the big one. Because nobody really talks that way.
WHY ATONEMENT WILL WILL BEST PICTURE: Because it’s a costume drama, and that’s always a dependable voting bloc in the Academy. Because James Purefoy and Keira Knightley are incandescent on screen. Because it has an excellent literary pedigree. Because it’s about war, kinda, which is always dependable for votes.
WHY ATONEMENT WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because costume dramas have as many haters as they do boosters. Because two other movies this year have literary pedigrees, one of which (There Will Be Blood) is arguably more impressive. Because although it’s set in a time of war, there are in fact no battle scenes. Because every year, there’s an “honor just to be nominated” film, and this year, it is Atonement.
WHY MICHAEL CLAYTON WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s a sharp, intelligent legal thriller, and far and away the best one in a year of numerous very good sharp intelligent legal thrillers. Because George Clooney gives the best performance of an already storied and brilliant career. Because Tom Wilkinson and Tilda Swinton do even better. Because it trades in suspense for existential sadness and makes you enjoy it. Because it’s just gorgeously shot and paced and wholly professional in every way. Because “I am Shiva, the God of Death!”
WHY MICHAEL CLAYTON WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because sharp, intelligent legal thrillers only very rarely do well at the Academy Awards. Because trading in suspense makes the movie perhaps somewhat predictable. Because it’s solid and excellent in an unassuming, unpretentious way, which means it has a harder time getting votes because it’s not big and showy and waving its metaphorical hands around. Because there are acting categories to reward good actors.
WHY NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s well past time to reward the Coen Brothers. Because Javier Bardem’s villain is an instant classic, a nightmare piece of cinematic history. Because Josh Brolin had a really, really good year and this was the best part of it. Because it’s languid like a hot Texas day – and just as menacing. Because did we mention the Coen brothers are well past overdue for some little golden statues?
WHY NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because people might like There Will Be Blood better. Because the last fifteen minutes of the movie feel, to some, to be kind of aimless and draggy. Because Javier Bardem is going to win Best Supporting Actor in a landslide, so why recognize him here. Because Because the Coens are possibly the new Martin Scorcese.
WHY THERE WILL BE BLOOD WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because Daniel Day-Lewis fucking owns the screen for nearly three hours. Because Paul Danno matches up to him. Because the oil-gush is dramatic and intense. Because Paul T. Anderson is likewise overdue for a little golden statue. Because it’s relevant, in a historical sense, to modern energy issues. Because I drink your milkshake.
WHY THERE WILL BE BLOOD WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because Daniel Day-Lewis is doing the standard “shout a lot and be showy” method of winning an Academy Award, even if he is doing it well. Because he’s got his own statue to win. Because Anderson doesn’t have as storied a career as the Coens do. Because a lot of people don’t like the score. Because the last twenty minutes really go off the rails in some people’s eyes.
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I’d agree with most of that. No Country should win. The people who think the last fifteen minutes are aimless and draggy probably think Michael Bay directs arty films because he points the camera at the sun. Bastards.
When I was coming out of the cinema one stupid old bat said – in as many words – that she didn’t like it because Tommy Lee Jones didn’t beat the bad guy up at the end and that she doesn’t like films were the bad guy gets away with it.
People like this deserve no sympathy.
Juno was amusing but not oscar material. No one speaks like that true – but it is funny listening to impressionable teens try!
Why I stopped watching the Oscars: Because Forrest Gump took the Oscar for Best Special Effects over The Mask and that kind of bitter just don’t go away.
Not seen There will be Blood yet. I really want to – but do you know what puts me off? The font of the title. Petty I know.
To be fair, after seeing FORREST GUMP for the first time, me and my dad where like “so, did they hire an actual amputee and get some kind of prosthetics for the scenes where he had legs- no, no, that can’t be it, he walks normally, and-”
It was sort of a surprise to find out that they could use computers to remove something like a guy’s legs so seamlessly.
No Country went off the rails *long* before the last 15 minutes. I can’t recall ever being so enthusiastically engrossed in a movie only to have it to a complete 180 in the third act. “Here’s 90 minutes of expert pacing and masterful application of tension andddddddddddd….oh, you wanted a punchline? There’s no punchline.” I’ve never seen a Cohen Bros. movie I haven’t loved (yes, i loved The Ladykillers), and the third act of NC just drove me crazy. Obviously, I’m tip-toeing around spoilers, but I think anyone who has seen it can assume what I’m referring to.
The movie really got me thinking about how great the disconnect has become between Critics/The Academy and the moviegoing public. When people wonder aloud how something like Meet the Spartans can make money while modern-day classics like Million Dollar Baby make no cash, I’m going to remember this.
There Will Be Blood deserves it, no contest.
“Why I stopped watching the Oscars: Because Forrest Gump took the Oscar for Best Picture over The Shawshank Redemption and that kind of bitter just don’t go away.”
Fixed that for ya.
“Why I stopped watching the Oscars: Because Forrest Gump took the Oscar for anything other than Best Special Effects and that kind of bitter just don’t go away.”
Fixed that fix for ya.
This is one of the first years ever where I feel I might actually want to watch some or all of the nominees. I’ve seen No Country, and that’s it. While I liked it, I wasn’t overwhelmed with its awesomeness. Juno and Atonement seem like lightweight nods to me, but all of them look worth watching…
James McAvoy, not James Purefoy. One N in Paul Dano.
It’ll go to No Country.
I’m seeing them all on Saturday, though I have already seen Juno. Juno is a great movie, and even though I don’t think it will win, I didn’t think Little Miss Sunshine would win either, and this has a lot of the same things going for it.
Is it wrong that I assumed that There Will Be Blood was a Saw spinoff?
James McAvoy.
*sigh* I loved Atonement. As much as I loved the novel. And the adaptation was done so cleverly. The opening shot with the dollhouse? Putting the constructed nature of the setting in the forefront? Clever! The score, not just the typewriter sounds, but the bits where the score bled into the action of the film (Briony playing it on the piano, Cecilia plucking a final note) underscoring, once again, the constructed nature of the action? Clever! Oh, how I loved that movie.
It won’t win, but if it does, you’ll hear my shouts of joy throughout Toronto.
I’ve only seen Atonement, Juno and No Country For Old Men so far; There Will Be Blood arrives this weekend in my area. Of the two I’ve seen so far, I’d vote for Atonement, I guess; NCFOM was a great thriller for most of the run, but the ending isn’t good for a thriller, and I’m not really sure I see much deeper meaning in the film to compensate for that, beyond “the bad guy gets away with it” (although I did enjoy the subversion of the title by showing how the country’s always been tough).
Oh, and I’d disagree about Cody winning, at least; I think she’ll win the screenplay award, since that has a long history as a consolation prize for a popular newcomer.
In the adapted screenplay category, I expect that will go to whichever one of Anderson or the Coens doesn’t win the Picture/Director honours.
This is pretty much why I won’t see There Will Be Blood and why it will win an oscar:
The first 15 minutes have no speech.
I really want “No Country For Old Men” to win. It was by and far one of the best movies I’ve ever seen, even if you include the last 15 minutes of the movie.
“This is pretty much why I won’t see There Will Be Blood and why it will win an oscar:
The first 15 minutes have no speech.”
You won’t even notice it.
“The first 15 minutes have no speech.”
Worked for The Molly Maguires.
This is pretty much why I won’t see There Will Be Blood and why it will win an oscar:
The first 15 minutes have no speech.
I wanted to be nice, but I can’t be. That is retarded reasoning.
I haven’t seen any of these movies. At all. It’s been a bad movie season for me– all I’ve seen has been “Meet the Spartans”.
My 11-year-old sister went to her 11-year-old friend’s movie birthday party and watched Juno. I was a bit stunned, because I live in the Southeastern US and all. General pre-teen consensus was that the movie was “too long”.
I watched all five in a row yesterday. Juno’s my favorite by a long shot, but I don’t really think it will win. There will be Blood relied entirely on Lewis, and he’s really the only good thing about it. Michael Clayton and Atonement were both OK, but not really gripping or anything. No Country was just flat-out weird. Good, but DAMN was it fucked up.