So the interrobangonets are abuzz about how Mitt “I Am The Next GOP Presidential Candidate, Really” Romney managed to lose three states in a single night to Rick Santorum of all people. I’ve previously discussed how I’ve long felt that Romney is the weakest “prohibitive favorite” in a long time, but now that the campaign is eight states in, we can more accurately assess this, as follows:
1.) The majority of Republicans will vote for not-Romney over Romney, given the chance. Mitt has only won three of eight states. In only one state (Nevada) has he managed to crack 50% of the vote (and then only just). In more conservative states he has trouble cracking 40% of the vote. The base does not like Romney, and for a long time their problem has been that they could not decide if they preferred Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum to him, which is understandable because Gingrich is an awful person and Santorum a proven loser, but it seems that, barring something weird happening (which has been the case frequently so far) that Santorum is finally getting the nod, mostly because Gingrich’s entire strategy was to say “I can beat Obama in a debate, I will own his ass” and then could not beat Mitt Romney in a debate. (Of course, Gingrich’s entire strategy was also predicated on the notion that Barack Obama would be lost without a teleprompter, which is blindly stupid – Obama owned McCain at the debates in 2008 and has always been a careful and eloquent extemporaneous speaker – but hey, nothing like the GOP for demanding that we all pretend that the black guy can’t speak well without help.)
2.) Despite this, Romney can still win. Since most of the GOP primaries are no longer winner-take all, Romney can still win the nomination by being able to get a healthy dollop of each state’s delegates plus a larger percentage of the big states like New York and California where he would never win in the general election but which are comfortable enough with him to give him their support. That, combined with the fact that Romney has practically all of the announced superdelegates so far, could give him the nod. Of course, a large part of Romney’s victory path has always required him to be viewed as the inevitable result, and if Romney appears to not be an inevitable result then he could very well crumble.
3.) No matter what happens, this is not a GOP version of Hillary/Obama 2008. That primary campaign was between a longtime Democratic party top dog and the Future of the Party ™ who was a legitimate threat. This primary is between a Republican version of John Kerry except less likeable and human, a dude who lost a re-election campaign by twenty points, a guy who was so dishonest that his fellow Republicans said “dude, whoa” and an insane dwarf.
4.) Nobody likes Mitt Romney. Mitt has run an excruciatingly negative campaign. He has spent more than the rest of the field combined, almost all of it on negative ads against Newt Gingrich. This is not someone who will convince you to vote for him; he can only say “don’t vote for the other guy.” That’s not how you win elections. He could still very possibly win the primary, because money can go a long way. But in the general?
Related Articles
31 users responded in this post
Gingrich won’t win – People hate him too much. Both in and especially out of his party. He has no moderate appeal.
Santorum won’t win – You can’t Google his name, and nobody knows enough about him to feel they know enough about him.
Romney will win – Not because people like him, they don’t, but because he can appeal to the moderates that elected Obama into office in the first place. People don’t hate him like Gingrich, or feel apathetic about him like Santorum.
Of course, once it’s Obama versus Romney, Obama (probably) wins. Given that the folks who -could- energize and unite the GOP didn’t run this election, I’m already betting on Romney for the nom and Obama for the next 4 years. The real kicker is if the Democrats will get out and vote, and if the Moderates would rather see 4 more years of the incumbent than the new guy. I’m skeptical on both counts, but typically Americans go with the incumbent. Getting Dems motivated enough to outvote the GOP is the tricky part (Bush 2004 anyone?).
If Mitt Romney becomes the President, can I come stay with you? Two Bushes I will tolerate, but a Romney will not stand.
“Gingrich is an awful person and Santorum a proven loser”
missing a “that and”
Gingrich’s nightmare would be that something happens to Romney & he ends up getting the nod for this year’s GOP kamikaze mission. Gingrich wants Romney to get the nomination & lose so he can gloat & claim leadership of the party by telling them he would have won if he had been the candidate.
Gingrich’s next biggest nightmare would be Santorum getting the nod then losing b/c then ultra-conservatism would be discredited in the party but Gingrich couldn’t even claim elder statesman status.
“This primary is between a Republican version of John Kerry except less likeable and human, a dude who lost a re-election campaign by twenty points, a guy who was so dishonest that his fellow Republicans said “dude, whoa” and an insane dwarf.”
The GOP is trying to harness the popularity of the Game of Thrones, I am guessing.
Meanwhile, the sane Republicans with an ounce of self respect are staying clear of the whole thing this time out, fully expecting the party to self-implode and rebuild for 2016.
You’d think if Romney had much personal pride, he’d just tell the party, “Fine, you hate me that much? I quit. Fuck you, and have fun watching the Newtron Bomb destroy the party just in time to give Obama a huge landslide.”
Obama’s going to win it. The Republicans have been doing all his heavy lifting for him, ripping each other to shreds, and the President and his people are busy taking notes on how to finish off the surviving nominee.
Another reason why this is not comparable to the Democratic primaries in 2008 is because the Democrats in that case were much less concerned with ideological purity. In 2008, one of the most widely hated Republican Presidents in modern history was just ending his second term, and Democrats mainly just wanted someone who could take back the White House. What with the Tea Party driving the Republicans further and further to the right, their tent is a lot smaller than it was under Bush Jr.
“This primary is between a Republican version of John Kerry except less likeable and human, a dude who lost a re-election campaign by twenty points, a guy who was so dishonest that his fellow Republicans said “dude, whoa” and an insane dwarf.” Really is the best description of the field I’ve heard.
But I’ve got to take issue with the people claiming there are some mythical electable Republicans who sat this one out because they didn’t like their chances:
1. While improving the economy is still terrible for an incumbent President, Obamacare which is Obama’s greatest accomplishment is still sadly fairly unpopular, and there’s a fired up Republican base eager to throw him out of office. All of that should make for a frankly easy election for any halfway competent challenger.
2. No one is ever actually able to name these mythical great candidates who are just bidding their time. Daniels has a bizarre personal history and may soon be indicted for voter fraud. Chris Christie is becoming increasingly unpopular in his own state, tends to stick his foot in his mouth, and in a very shallow country is morbidly obese. Jeb Bush’s chances were ruined by his brother. The list goes on, but the reality remains the same: the Republican candidates who didn’t run this time didn’t run because they were smart enough to realize they’re just as flawed and damaged as the candidates that did run.
The Republican Party needs to take a cold hard look in the mirror and realize that it’s on the road to political irrelevance if it can’t face demographic reality and start shifting itself back to sanity.
These people actually make Bush look like JFK.
@dirge93 “Getting Dems motivated enough to outvote the GOP is the tricky part (Bush 2004 anyone?).”
In truth, that’s kind of a myth. John Kerry got what was, at that point, the second most votes every by a presidential candidate. It just so happened what was the record for most ever went to Bush that same year.
Obama broke that record, and I *think* McCain actually passed Bush for second place. In total voters, the last two elections were both massive record setters.
Lets also remember that Kerry in 2004 ran the political version of the ‘prevent defense’ by trying to triangulate every position in an attempt not to offend anybody. It worked about as well as the prevent defense every works.
Gaddez: These people actually make Bush look like JFK.
Uh, no. They don’t.
Seemed like Newt Gingrich was on a real roll there until he uttered the fatal words… “moon base”.
I keep hoping that the way Stephen Colbert keeps mocking Gingrich about his morals, his history with women and various other things that should make Tea Party Republicans refuse to vote for the guy for many moral, ethical and religious reasons finally starts doing some good.
A true evangelical Christian right-wing republican shouldn’t be able to vote for Newt with a clean conscience for so many reasons. In an ideal world, that would keep people from voting for him just because he isn’t President Obama.
Unfortunately, his connection with Fox News somehow outweighs little things like the truth and that he’s an unlikable creep.
Basically, we have to hope that all the stupid stuff he said about Spanish-speaking people and African Americans finally kills his campaign at some point.
Nobody except for Stephen Colbert and Jon Stewart seem to care about all of the other reasons why his own party should want the guy to shut up and go away.
Brian T: I keep hoping that the way Stephen Colbert keeps mocking Gingrich about his morals, his history with women and various other things that should make Tea Party Republicans refuse to vote for the guy for many moral, ethical and religious reasons finally starts doing some good.
I hope not. First, watching Stewart/Colbert mock Gingrich is too much fun. And second, I really, really want to see him utterly humiliated in a general election.
I like Buzz’s take: Gingrich’s nightmare would be that something happens to Romney & he ends up getting the nod for this year’s GOP kamikaze mission. Gingrich wants Romney to get the nomination & lose so he can gloat & claim leadership of the party by telling them he would have won if he had been the candidate.
Nothing would please me more in the coming election to than to have it be an Obama v Gingrich contest.
In terms of electable Republicans who sat it out, John Thune is an obvious one. People like Daniels might have some flaws, but compared to all the other candidates who are in the race they’re far superior.
Tim Pawlenty is undoubtedly kicking himself for having dropped out.
“Nothing would please me more in the coming election to than to have it be an Obama v Gingrich contest.”
Obama v. Palin.
Thanks for pointing out that Romney is basically John Kerry only with an elephant lapel pin. I’ve been saying this since the get-go and everyone’s all “no way man, Romney is totally friendly to Republican interests”, and I’m all “dude, Romney is like a Hollywood screenwriter’s idea of a politician”.
I dunno. People are hanging a lot on Gingrich’s supposed moral issues, but I really don’t think anyone cares at this point. Feiler Faster theorem, and all that stuff happened fifteen years ago. If Gingrich is the nominee I could see him actually convincing Republicans to show up; I can’t see Romney convincing them that voting is a better use of their time than staying at home downloading porn.
I was just considering the fact that the so-called “insane dwarf” is the only candidate of a mainstream party who speaks out in favour of the right to a real trial in cases where someone is charged with terrorism. He is also the only one who really questions the incessant wars (looks like the US is gearing up for Iran) and the illegal drone killings that the US is currently doing.
If he is insane, then all the other candidates, including Obama, are nutty enough that a new word has to be invented to describe them.
He’s also the white supremacist who has ties to multiple neo-nazi groups.
A white supremacist goldbug who doesn’t understand that there’s just a bit of a conflict between being pro-liberty and anti-abortion (and there are even problems with his stance on that). I’m glad someone is raising the issues that I agree with him on, but he couldn’t be a worse spokesperson for them if he tried.
I’ve yet to hear Ron Paul let out anything White Supremacist. Also, if you see a fetus as a person, abortion is not a simple question of liberty.
That said, let me point out again that:
– All the other candidates oppose the right to a fair trial.
– All the other candidates except arguably Obama are warmongers.
– None of the other candidates oppose the insane war against drugs, which is a main cause of three percent of the US population being in prison or on probation.
All of the above are crazier than being a goldbug or a libertarian. They roughly equal being a white supremacist in their cruelty and nuttiness.
It’s also not really reasonable to say he’s “against the War on Drugs” when he’s repeatedly stated that he simply wants to end the Federal War on Drugs and hand it over to the States to wage their own personal 50 Wars on Drugs, and you know since something like 95% of people currently imprisoned for drug related offenses are in jail under State not Federal law, he’s not going to actually help anyone there.
Also Heksefatter, if you’ve not heard Ron Paul say anything racist you’re not paying attention. The guys a bigot with a history of statements going back decades, Ron Paul supporters who don’t see it either don’t want to see it or share the beliefs themselves.
Then you’re pretty crazy.
“Also, if you see a fetus as a person”
… then the most important policy you can support is sex ed in schools, since that is the only thing that decreases abortions. (Including banning abortions.)
Funny, the person-hood of fetuses always seems to evaporate right around that point. Almost as if this issue were a cultural dog whistle instead of a matter of principle! Go figure.
“I was just considering the fact that the so-called “insane dwarf” is the only candidate of a mainstream party who speaks out in favour of the right to a real trial in cases where someone is charged with terrorism.”
False. Kucinich has been a candidate for years. We match your insane dwarf and raise you an Al Franken.
The only possible devout Christian ticket the GOP could possibly make electable: Lin/Tebow ’12
“I’ve yet to hear Ron Paul let out anything White Supremacist.”
Ron Paul newsletters? Yes, I know he denies having written them. In the early 90’s, he said he had to stand by them. In the early 00’s, he said some of the content was written by staffers. In 2011, he suddenly claims he never heard of them until 10 years after they were published.
Also, Anon just hacked a bunch of White Supremacist sites a week or so back, and, what do you know, a bunch of the leaders on those sites just so happen to be high-level Ron Paul organizers who have fairly regular meetings with him.
Or maybe his statements about the TSA hiring people who “look more like a threat” than the people they are screening and “don’t look American to me.”
Try those. Ron Paul is psychotic evil bastard. And he absolutely does not oppose the War on Drugs, as mentioned above. He just wants the states to wage it. He does not support gay marriage, he just wants the states to ban it (and he fought to make sure other states don’t have to recognize gay marriages from other states.)
In short, he’s a Republican with even more dangerous ideas than the normal breed. Fuck Ron Paul
@Sean Martin: The problem is that since a lot of conservatives in the U.S. are easily swayed by whatever they hear on Fox News, Gingrich could pull out a surprise win and then we would have at least four years of his crap to deal with.
The dude needs to fail before it ever gets to that point.
For a depressingly large amount of people, the actual Republican candidate doesn’t matter. Just not being Obama is good enough for them.
See also: Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann. There are all sorts of good reasons not to vote for either one of them, but people who watch Fox News a lot convinced themselves that they would be great as either V.P. or president because they’re nice Christian ladies who claimed they would make stands against “politics as usual” and other things that get Fox News viewers all riled up.
A Fox viewer wouldn’t care that Newt is about as ethical as Bernie Madoff because he gave enough soundbites that they agreed with over the years that they can overlook things that would have them comparing him to Bin Laden if he was a democrat.
See also: Karl Rove still having power and influence. Apparently, just because Fox News likes him.
“A true evangelical Christian right-wing republican shouldn’t be able to vote for Newt with a clean conscience for so many reasons.”
I think you’re missing an important fact about evangelicals, they embrace forgiveness. they recognize that people drink, do drugs, have sex etc but will always welcome you back to the fold if you’ve repented.
Gingrich very cannily ticked off that box a while ago converting to Catholicism and talking about his road to redemption.
Not every evangelical will buy it but he’s certainly done some groundwork to address those issues.
As an evangelical Christian myself, I am very familiar with the concept of forgiveness for sins. I get your point, though.
However, if Newt found religion purely as a political move, he would have been smarter to pick a protestant denomination to join. Some of us evangelicals aren’t down with the Roman Catholic Church for a variety of reasons.
Sure, some of them sound dumb to non-christians who don’t get why these things matter to people… but they would still hurt Newt’s ability to appeal to protestants (at least the ones who aren’t like “at least he isn’t a secret Muslim and he might be pro-life so that’s good enough for me”).