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bunnyofdoom said on September 17th, 2008 at 1:08 pm

I hope to god that last scenario you presented happens. I like my country whole, in one piece, and with Quebec.

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mightybaldking said on September 17th, 2008 at 1:11 pm

Nice analysis.

Minor losses in the Conservative column would be seeing Flaherty and Baird forcefully returned to private life. (Please God!)

The Maritimers are (slowly) waking up to the fact that the Conservative party isn’t the same party that the family has voted for since confederation, and I expect to see some losses there.

Today’s announcement on Education funding by the Liberals indicates a shift away from the environment only platform they choked on last week. Now let’s here some sound economic policy, and show Harper’s policy for what it is and we can stave off a meltdown.

Greens can win if May comes second place in her riding AND they show a significant portion of the popular vote country-wide. If they can take 10% in 60% of all ridings, then they’ve shown their serious.

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Flaherty’s riding has the potential to knock him out, but it would take a very bad campaign for the Tories to do it. Baird is popular in his riding, so he’s almost certainly safe bar a total meltdown.

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Yeah, put down in blue and white like that, I need a fuckin’ drink.

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I’M WORKING ON A SITE REDESIGN YEESH

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I’m voting Liberal, but I dislike Dion and voting only to break the grip of the CP. I am sure the Conservatives want people to split the Liberal votes into the green party to secure the majority for themselves.

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What do you mean by the Robocalls?

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Think Homer Simpson’s auto-dialer, Evan. Except legal and with a more boring recorded message.

(You know, if Layton would just open with “Greetings friend. Do you wish to look as happy as me?” I’m sure there’d be fewer people annoyed by those robocalls. :) )

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You know, I haven’t lived in Newfoundland for several years, but I really can’t imagine the NDP getting anyone elected there. Let alone multiple people.
I mean, in the last election only one of their candidates (http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes2006/riding/007/) made it past 20%.
If people there dislike the Conservatives, they’ll just end up voting Liberal. That’s what happened last time one of those parties fell out of favour.
I can see the NDP getting more votes nationally, and not much of a seat increase. And then they’ll start wishing there was some form of proportional representation in Canada.
(Last election. 17.5% of the vote, 9.4% of the seats.)

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Reporter: CJ, what would be considered a win in the debates?
CJ: 270 electoral votes.

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I think the Greens are going to “lose”. As I understand it, May is still polling pretty badly in Central Nova, because Liberal voters left en masse for the NDP. I don’t know any firm numbers, since there don’t seem to be many, but it looks as if the NDP and Tories are both polling in the mid-to-low 30s, and the Tories have a one or two point lead.

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“and to continue its steady and gradual growth in the Maritimes by taking seats in Newfoundland (where the Tories are stumbling thanks to Danny Williams being a pugnacious asshole).”

The NDP has been losing ground in Atlantic Canada (calling Newfoundland part of the Maritimes; tsk tsk) since 1997; they haven’t won a new seat in over a decade, and have gradually gone from 8 to just 3 (one of which, McDonough’s open seat, is up for grabs).

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