WHY THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s finally the big-swing Best Picture contender directed by David Fincher with Brad Pitt in it that a generation has been waiting for. Because it made the most money out of all the contenders. Because people genuinely like it. Because people think Cate Blanchett means Oscar-worthy movie, even when that isn’t the case.
WHY THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s Forrest Gump with fancier CGI and a weirder premise. Because just as many people genuinely hate it as genuinely like it. Because it’s been doing poorly in the awards everywhere else. Because it’s two and a half hours of creepy with fifteen minutes of touching.
WHY MILK WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s actually the best picture nominated. Because its story is coming at the right time when people in the film industry Want To Say Something about gay rights. Because it has tons and tons of good performances in it, and more than a couple of brilliant ones. Because Harvey Milk is here to recruit you.
WHY MILK WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because if it’s going to win awards for its acting, it will win them in the acting categories. Because despite its excellence, it definitely lags a bit in the middle and skips and hops through its narrative at other points. Because the fact that Hollywood is gay-friendly doesn’t mean it feels the need to give this movie an award that might otherwise feel unearned. Because the movie feels like a vehicle for Sean Penn more than anything else.
WHY SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s a feel-good movie that’s so brilliantly made that you can almost forget it’s a feel-good movie. Because it’s a modern-day fairy tale. Because it has the best soundtrack of an Oscar-worthy film in years if not more. Because it managed to become a crowd-pleasing favourite with zero white characters and one-third of the movie being subtitled. Because it, at this point, has the big mo’. Because it is destiny.
WHY SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s a feel-good movie that doesn’t really hold up to a second viewing, thanks to its reliance on a series of deus ex machinae to advance the plot. Because the studio shortchanged the Indian child actors and karma is a bitch. Because Danny Boyle has a lot of – well, not enemies, but people he’s pissed off enough that they might not vote for him.
WHY THE READER WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s a well-made little film about a very big subject. Because it has forty minutes of Kate Winslet having sex and many more of her acting impeccably well. Because Holocaust films traditionally play well with the Academy. Because the Weinstein Company made a very big and very strong awards push late in the game.
WHY THE READER WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s the umpteenth film about the Holocaust. Because there’s a really good movie waiting to be made about how Germans reacted to the Holocaust and this one only scratches the surface. Because the only reason it got nominated is because people really love Kate Winslet. Because there’s no real reason this movie should win Best Picture. Because it simply isn’t outstanding.
WHY FROST/NIXON WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because Ron Howard is very very very popular in Hollywood.
WHY FROST/NIXON WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because he’s not so popular that most people are suddenly going to think this deserved its nomination, let alone a win.
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You skipped the goat:
http://fullbodytransplant.wordpress.com/2009/02/21/24-hours-until-oscar-kate-must-win/
Forgive the double spam, this is important to me. And Harvey, obv. He is the one who started the Slumdog child actor abuse rumor. Hard freaking core.
Since I have seen absolutely none of these films (but have trouble accepting the idea that they’re all better than In Bruges), I’m basing my support entirely on the cast.
And since I hate Sean Penn’s stupid face, and haven’t found Cate Blanchett hot since Elizabeth, I’m going to have to go with the Kate Winslet factor.
Not that my support is worth anything whatsoever.
Hollywood is so far from meeting my needs as a customer that I’m not even interested in seeing any of those movies. If that’s what they think they do best, no wonder I can never find anything to watch on the weekends. And that puzzles me: I’m actually someone who used to go out to the movies about 3 weekends a month, but the last few years there just aren’t enough movies I want to see. More weekends than not, I’m frustrated because of the lack of choice and so I stay home, even though I have money and am willing to spend it at the theaters.
WHY FROST/NIXON WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because Ron Howard is very very very popular in Hollywood.
You forget the second part – because Dick Nixon is still widely loathed in Hollywood. As is W. And given that Frost/Nixon ends up being read as a commentary on W while punching Tricky Dick in the gut, it gets more kudos than it really has earned.
Not enough kudos to get an Oscar win, though.
Hollywood is so far from meeting my needs as a customer that I’m not even interested in seeing any of those movies. If that’s what they think they do best, no wonder I can never find anything to watch on the weekends.
Just FYI – the Oscars are about the self-congratulatory masturbation of the film industry, not about rewarding what they think people want to see the most or even about finding artistic films that they think people SHOULD see to give them more exposure. It’s not even really about finding the “best” in each category for each year – too many of these awards fall into the “well, he didn’t really deserve it for this film, but he was totally robbed two years ago when he should have won it, so he’ll get the award for this one instead.”
It’s mostly about the insider stuff. Occasionally there’s a film that is so obviously the right one that it blows past the insider stuff to win its category regardless of the petty backstage dramas, but most years it boils down to the petty stuff.
“Occasionally there’s a film that is so obviously the right one that it blows past the insider stuff to win its category regardless of the petty backstage dramas, but most years it boils down to the petty stuff.”
Which is why I only care about the Razzies. The results of which were as follows:
The Love Guru – 3 awards (Worst Picture, Actor and Screenplay)
Paris Hilton – 3 awards (Worst Actress, Supporting Actress and Worst Couple)
Uwe Boll – Worst Director and Worst Career Achievement (Stallone for sure next year)
Worst Supporting Actor – Pierce Brosnan (Mamma Mia!)
Worst Prequel, Remake, Rip-Off or Sequel – Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Duh!)
Worst Prequel, Remake, Rip-Off or Sequel – Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (Duh!)
From what I’ve heard, the third Mummy movie or Madagascar 2 would have been more appropriate winners.
So, MGK — what ARE your picks for the major categories?
Don’t really see Milk winning. Afterall, they did take away the oscar from Brokeback in order to give it to the most relevant race-issues-film for the 1950s, “Crash” (and Brokeback was far from year’s best, but it was the best between the nominated). I don’t think Hollywood is really all that gay-friendly. It’s certainly more than usual, but that’s not saying much…
The films are so far away from my tastes, I can’t really follow that closely, but it seems Slumdog might grab it (like last year, imo it seems a somewhat “international” “open mindedness of the new turn” vibe — fuck, I can’t believe the last oscars’ had Stewart making Gaydolf Hickler/ Hussein Obama jokes. Those elections are fucking long, man).
2- And why are people pissed at Boyle? I missed that. Is it the running not-zombies thing? Yeah, it’s the running not-zombies, isn’t it? Mr Oscar hated Left4Dead…
and 3- there are a good number of films about a nation’s response to their own crimes. A lot of american films deal with that subject, mostly by how they don’t.
Thok,
Actually I was kind of shocked that Meet The Spartans didn’t get any Razzies.
No live-blarg?