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mygif

I’m going to rank Romney a little higher- the danger is if he manages to make it out of the Republican primaries.

Of this whole lot he’s the only oen who doesn’t engage my ‘IGNORE! IGNORE!’ button on site- he’s got to start talking for that to happen.

Personally, I think an Iowa primary debate between Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, and Donald Trump is exactly what the Republican party deserves.

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malakim2099 said on March 5th, 2011 at 12:21 am

I am a touch surprised you didn’t mention Jon Huntsman Jr. He did resign as Ambassador of China to (probably) prepare a run at the Presidency. He probably has a better chance than most of the people you’ve listed here.

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mygif

Is there anyone else from a state with many electoral votes that’s a legit candidate?

(Doubts a Paul/Trump ticket would fly.)

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mygif

I assume Rand Paul is in a similar boat to Ron?

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mygif

Rand, to the best of my knowledge, has not talked about running. Actually, he’s in a pretty good position to run, relatively speaking; he’s a first-term Senator, so he doesn’t have to worry about compromises weighing down his voting record, and he’s 1/3 of the way through a term in a safe seat, so it won’t cost him anything, opportunity-wise, to run. And Obama couldn’t even use his lack of experience against him, since he was in pretty much the same position when he ran.

His only problem is that he’s an incoherent idiot who alienates people every time he opens his mouth. (Oh, wait. And all the skeletons in his closet. Two problems.)

And I’m vaguely aware of Huntsman, malakim2099, but that actually puts me ahead of most Republicans, which is why he’s not on the list. :) Huntsman has a huge name-recognition gap to overcome, and not much of a war chest or fundraising capability to do it with.

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mygif

I don’t think Romney’s ever going to be able to get past the fact that he’s a Mormon…among Republicans. The same crowd that thinks Obama is a Muslim communist tends to look askance at Mormons, and even mainstream Christians don’t usually consider them to be Christians.

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mygif

Rand Paul’s very first act in the Senate was to completely reverse positions from what he’d been specifically promising his teabagger supporters, though.

This is American Conservativism. You don’t need to be a long-time Senator to be a two-faced whore.

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mygif

You’re not serious about the name thing are you? Cause:

a) Is “Mitt” any better than “Newt” or “Huckabee”
b) Our current president is named Barack Obama
c) We once had a dude in the Oval Office named Millard. [i]Millard![/i]

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mygif

1. Mitt recalls mittens-soft and fuzzy. Much better than “slimy lizard” or “hayseed stereotype.”
2. Barack Obama may be unusual, but it is free of any negative connotations by sound alone.
3. The 1800s, like the 1700s before it, involved drinking heavily morning, noon and night, every single day.

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Mary Warner said on March 5th, 2011 at 3:38 pm

Where’s Gary Johnson? He’s been showing every sign of running for at least a year now.
I guess his big strength is that he appeals to all the Ron Paul fans, but isn’t quite so nutty, so he’s less likely to scare away the mainstream voters.
I suppose the big weaknesses are that he’s still not that well-known, and he freely admits to having smoked pot recently, rather than in the distant past.

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Sofa King said on March 5th, 2011 at 3:43 pm

“Barack Hussein Obama” is a name free of negative connotations? *blink* Did you miss all of the howling over that? Not that I agree with them, but his name was a major stumbling block.

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mygif

At the time Pawlenty (or T-paw as we derisively call him) the state deficit was something like 6.2 billion. It’s come down in the last couple of months because of better economic forecasts, but he did neither jack nor shit to balance the budget during his time in office, instead choosing to buff up his republican cred by refusing to work with the democrats in office, refusing to even discuss taxes except to talk about cuts, and generally dicking around outside the state hobnobbing with the people he thinks will support his run for president.

The economic situation here is kind of complex, basically the state reserves the right to enact sales taxes and income taxes for itself, while promising to assist cities with their finances though Local Government Aid. (LGA) T-Paw has been doing the old “Strangle government in the crib” thing by slashing LGA to cities while still denying them the ability to enact sales taxes locally.

While it can be argued that there is government bloat to be cut in a lot of places, what is particularly notable about MN is the way that T-Paw forced cities and counties to slash their budgets and reduce services while the state government he oversaw remained basically untouched by cuts.
As a very minor but telling example I recall one article in particular taking the state to task for still providing refreshments at meetings, when most cities and counties had cut coffee, water and donuts out of their budgets several years previously. Pretty typical republican tactics, “pain for thee, but not for me.”

TL;DR. I’m from Minnesota and Tim Pawlenty sucks goat balls.

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mygif

In 2007 I don’t know that Barack Obama was that well known or taken extremely seriously as a future president, most people assumed Hilary would get in.

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mygif

Regarding the names, yeah, some people made hay over Obama’s name, but that’s the sort of problem that can be confronted head-on as a question of racism, etc. Conversely, having a silly-sounding name is not going to inspire strong defense.

Far from an insurmountable obstacle, of course.

Also missing here would be Haley Barbour (though the former has even more stereotype-related problems than any other candidate; he’s pretty much a collection of stereotypical Southern Republican traits; it’d be like the Democrats nominating Barney Frank) and Mitch Daniels.

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mygif

@Sofa King,

That’s why I both said “by sound alone” and omitted the “Hussein” mddlename.

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Alex Jay Berman said on March 5th, 2011 at 5:59 pm

Despite his saying he won’t run, there’s the chance of John Thune making a go at it–though, as you said, he would do better to wait it out.
That said, a John Thune/Nikki Haley ticket would scare me; Thune has enough on both sides of the equation that he would appeal to independents and moderates, while Haley (having quashed the sex scandal) is everything Sarah Palin should have been. Plus, you can never discount the effect that having a pretty, pretty ticket can have.

There are others who WILL run: Rick Santorum, for one, whose campaign I welcome almost as much as Palin’s, Haley Barbour (he’s Boss Hogg, and therefore will die on the vine right after Iowa); Mike Pence, whose uberconservative views doom him in a general election.

There are some very real VP possibilities who scare me, as well: Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, Bob McDonnell.

Also, Mitch Daniels’ naked desire for higher office is palpable.

My biggest worry? That having people like Pence, Santorum, Palin, and barbour will make the eventual winner of the Republican primary look sane, intelligent, and moderate by comparison, and therefore better positioned to wool-pull in the general election.

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mygif

@Josh R: I’m from MN, too. That gag was by way of being a little self-deprecating Minnesotan humor. :) And yes, the impressive thing about Pawlenty was the way that he kept insisting, “Well, I balanced the budget without raising taxes…” all without mentioning the fact that property taxes (the only way municipalities could raise income in the absence of LGA) skyrocketed during his eight years as governor. Because, you know, he didn’t raise them. He just created conditions in which they absolutely positively had to be raised in order to maintain essential services.

Not hearing Thune mentioned much (the occasional Barbour mention, but I don’t think he’ll go through with it, not with his habit of spontaneously telling people how segregation wasn’t really all that bad for black people)…but man, I wish I’d remembered Santorum. How can you not wish you’d remembered a man whose main weakness is that his name is almost literally synonymous with “oily sack of shit”?

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mygif

In 2007 I don’t know that Barack Obama was that well known or taken extremely seriously as a future president, most people assumed Hilary would get in

Barack got a ton of name recognition from giving the keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. After that speech, there were many people who thought it was a matter of when Obama would run for President, not if.

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mygif

Good point on the idea of a Palin vanity run. I’ve spent the last year convinced she wouldn’t run because a) she’d hate being president and b) FOX keeps her attention habit supplied. I should have realised that one doesn’t need to have any hope of becoming president in order to run, even when we except sacrificial candidates.

Having said that, of course, if there was one person in the world I would think couldn’t wrap their heads around the idea that they couldn’t choose to run for president without running the risk of actually getting the job, it would be Sarah Palin. Or possibly Bill Kristol.

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mygif

Sigh. So we have to talk about 2012 now?!

The biggest knock against Romney? He couldn’t even win the 2008 GOP primaries with the backing of the major Far Right media whores like Limbaugh. In the Deep South and social conservative states, Romney rarely placed second behind either McCain or Huck. And McCain, remember, still wasn’t much loved by the Far Right going in. For McCain to be more trusted than Romney should tell you something… and yes Mormonism plays a part in that. The Baptist/Evangelical bunch in charge of the GOP may want conservative Mormon votes but they sure as hell don’t want a Mormon in charge…

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equinox216 said on March 6th, 2011 at 3:29 am

@Alex Jay Berman

I don’t see Haley having that kind of pull; she hasn’t actually DONE anything yet besides ‘get elected’.

And that was (a) as a Republican in South Carolina, which isn’t exactly a stretch, and (b) that in a state climate where she was following Mark Sanford, over whom a ham sandwich had a higher approval rating. She barely took the election (52% vs. 47%), did virtually nothing in the SC Congress before she pinged that radar, and even with the positional advantage of ‘Republican governor with Republican legislature in SC’, she hasn’t actually started to get anything done.

Mostly I think people on both sides will look at her and see Palin2.0, especially on the tail of Palin’s endorsement of her in the governor’s race (which, again, she was the darling of the TParT and Palin and only pulled out an election in SC with 52%?).

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mygif

Huntsman’s also a Mormon, although his biggest hurdle is actually choosing to be a part of the Obama Administration.

I think the GOP dark horse is Marco Rubio, the newly-elected Florida senator. He would definitely peel off Hispanic votes from Obama, either as a VP candidate or in a last-minute presidential run. Also, he’s being groomed by Jeb Bush to be the de facto heir to the Bush Dynasty. If it’s true that the 2012 GOP candidate would be a sacrifical lamb, Rubio in the VP ticket would place him perfectly for a 2016 run.

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mygif

This post is lame, because there are a lot of other wacky candidates who could be considered. Herman Cain, former founder of a pizza chain, just announced he’s considering running.

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Kid Kyoto said on March 7th, 2011 at 11:13 am

Every night I pray for some variation of a Palin/Guiliani/Trump/Ron or Rand Paul primary.

Just 2 of the 4 would keep me entertained for the next year or so.

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Fred Davis said on March 7th, 2011 at 2:51 pm

As an austrian who once declared that he felt that hitler was one of his heroes, Arnold is far too left wing to be taken seriously as a republican candidate.

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BlackBloc said on March 8th, 2011 at 8:45 am

>>I don’t think Romney’s ever going to be able to get past the fact that he’s a Mormon…among Republicans. The same crowd that thinks Obama is a Muslim communist tends to look askance at Mormons, and even mainstream Christians don’t usually consider them to be Christians.

And yet Glenn Beck is doing okay in that crowd, and he’s a Mormon too.

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Scavenger said on March 8th, 2011 at 12:07 pm

BlackBloc: Actually, Beck’s losing audience at an advanced rate, to where rumors or swirling that his numbers are no longer making up for the headaches he causes.

on Palin: I generaly agree with what John said, except I think he misreads the “why” she’ll quit….or the extra spin. She’ll be “forced out by the entrenched powers who are afraid of her.” Time has shown that nothing pumps up Palin’s q-rating with her followers than her casting herself as the victim

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mygif

Of the ones you list, it’ll be Huckabee to get the nod. As sacrificial lambs go, he’s a decent choice. Strong enough he -might- be able to beat Obama, weak/stable enough to toe the party line if he does.

Romney would’ve been a good choice, if he didn’t “have the stench of loser” about him.

Palin won’t get the nod simply because she’s too certain to lose, and she’s too unreliable on the off chance she wins.

Newt might make for a decent VP choice, but I think even he knows he can’t win the main prize. But he might see himself as Cheney to Huckabee’s Bush.

Seriously though, if the Republicans choose smartly (and the economy continues to worsen) they could actually give Obama a serious run in 2012. A moderate choice on the GOP’s part, and they -could- swing enough undecided voters to win.

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mygif

Needs an alignment chart.

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Hominid X said on March 25th, 2011 at 7:31 pm

Well, far too slowly, but the current trajectory of the economy is (generally) improving – actual jobs and people’s attitudes will lag, of course.

And other shit may happen, too.

From what little I know, Huntsman is perhaps the sanest option out of them, has a record of building compromises.

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