MALCOLM GLADWELL: So you see, Janey, you’re playing Go Fish incorrectly if you want to play it as efficiently as possible.
JANEY: But I want twos.
MALCOLM GLADWELL: But you asked for twos last round! Since I did not have twos, and since I have only drawn one more card, it’s highly unlikely that this most recent card was a two – in fact, we can calculate its likelihood exactly. We have played six cards between us, I have five cards in my hand and you have eight. That’s nineteen cards before I add my most recent card after you ask for twos, and since I previously had no twos and you have only one two – I assume, since you have played no twos – that means there are three twos in the remaining thirty-three cards, which means you only have a one in eleven chance of correctly getting a two if you ask for a two at this point. Maybe you should ask for another number?
JANEY: *starts crying*
ISAIAH: I want juice.
MALCOLM GLADWELL: Is it possible that you only think you want juice because seven other children so far in the class have asked for juice? Maybe you are being unknowingly coerced by Danny, who wants juice and is what we call a “connector,” because he is friends with so many other children. Danny’s desire for juice reflects on everyone he knows, and some of them in turn decide that they want juice.
ISAIAH: I don’t want juice now.
MALCOLM GLADWELL: Fascinating!
MALCOLM GLADWELL: The wheels on the bus go –
CLASS: Round round round!
MALCOLM GLADWELL: Excellent! See, what you did there was called “thin-slicing” – you continued the song from your own limited life experiences and limited knowledge. You know that wheels go round, so you finish the song yourself!
SHERRY: It was on Sesame Street yesterday.
MALCOLM GLADWELL: That still works.
LACEY: Mark’s hitting me!
MALCOLM GLADWELL: Lacey, you need to deal with Mark by out-innovating him.
MALCOLM GLADWELL: Oh, dear. That looked unpleasant. Lacey, it may end up that you are what we call a “direct hit,” and a “near miss” like Joey over there who Mark hasn’t noticed yet will be the one to out-innovate Mark, by using you as an example of what not to do.