My weekly TV column is up at Torontoist.
15
Sep
In 2015: “William And Kate: The First Bedwetting Of The Royal Heir”
Posted by MGK Published in The Internets, TVSearch
"[O]ne of the funniest bloggers on the planet... I only wish he updated more."
-- Popcrunch.com
"By MightyGodKing, we mean sexiest blog in western civilization."
-- Jenn
Contact
MGKontributors
The Big Board
MGKlassics
Blogroll
- ‘Aqoul
- 4th Letter
- Andrew Wheeler
- Balloon Juice
- Basic Instructions
- Blog@Newsarama
- Cat and Girl
- Chris Butcher
- Colby File
- Comics Should Be Good!
- Creekside
- Dave’s Long Box
- Dead Things On Sticks
- Digby
- Enjoy Every Sandwich
- Ezra Klein
- Fafblog
- Galloping Beaver
- Garth Turner
- House To Astonish
- Howling Curmudgeons
- James Berardinelli
- John Seavey
- Journalista
- Kash Mansori
- Ken Levine
- Kevin Church
- Kevin Drum
- Kung Fu Monkey
- Lawyers, Guns and Money
- Leonard Pierce
- Letterboxd – Christopher Bird - Letterboxd – Christopher Bird
- Little Dee
- Mark Kleiman
- Marmaduke Explained
- My Blahg
- Nobody Scores!
- Norman Wilner
- Nunc Scio
- Obsidian Wings
- Occasional Superheroine
- Pajiba!
- Paul Wells
- Penny Arcade
- Perry Bible Fellowship
- Plastikgyrl
- POGGE
- Progressive Ruin
- sayitwithpie
- scans_daily
- Scary-Go-Round
- Scott Tribe
- Tangible.ca
- The Big Picture
- The Bloggess
- The Comics Reporter
- The Cunning Realist
- The ISB
- The Non-Adventures of Wonderella
- The Savage Critics
- The Superest
- The X-Axis
- Torontoist.com
- Very Good Taste
- We The Robots
- XKCD
- Yirmumah!
Donate
Archives
- August 2023
- May 2022
- January 2022
- May 2021
- January 2021
- December 2020
- October 2020
- June 2020
- March 2020
- January 2020
- December 2019
- October 2019
- February 2019
- January 2019
- December 2018
- April 2018
- March 2018
- February 2018
- January 2018
- December 2017
- November 2017
- October 2017
- February 2017
- January 2017
- December 2016
- November 2016
- October 2016
- September 2016
- August 2016
- July 2016
- June 2016
- May 2016
- April 2016
- March 2016
- February 2016
- January 2016
- December 2015
- November 2015
- October 2015
- September 2015
- August 2015
- July 2015
- June 2015
- May 2015
- April 2015
- March 2015
- February 2015
- January 2015
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- February 2014
- January 2014
- December 2013
- November 2013
- October 2013
- September 2013
- August 2013
- July 2013
- June 2013
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- February 2007
Tweet Machine
- No Tweets Available
Recent Posts
- Server maintenance for https
- CALL FOR VOTES: the 2021 rec.sport.pro-wrestling Awards
- CALL FOR NOMINATIONS: The 2021 rec.sport.pro-wrestling Awards (the Theszies)
- The 2020 RSPW Awards – RESULTS
- CALL FOR VOTES: the 2020 Theszies (rec.sport.pro-wrestling Awards)
- CALL FOR NOMINATIONS: The 2020 Theszies (rec.sport.pro-wrestling awards)
- given today’s news
- If you can Schumacher it there you can Schumacher it anywhere
- The 2019 RSPW Awards – RESULTS
- CALL FOR VOTES – The 2019 RSPW Awards (The Theszies)
Recent Comments
- Jeff in CALL FOR VOTES: the 2021 rec.sport.pro-wrestling A…
- Greg in CALL FOR VOTES: the 2021 rec.sport.pro-wrestling A…
- DragoMaster009 in Grading Every Country's National Anthem, Part Four…
- DragoMaster009 in Review: The League of Regrettable Superheroes
- DragoMaster009 in MGK Ranks Every Live-Action Marvel Movie Since 199…
- DragoMaster009 in CALL FOR VOTES: the 2021 rec.sport.pro-wrestling A…
- DragoMaster009 in Meanwhile, in good comics (part II)
- Heksefatter in Server maintenance for https
- DragoMaster009 in Server maintenance for https
- Greg in CALL FOR VOTES: the 2021 rec.sport.pro-wrestling A…
Related Articles
13 users responded in this post
Off topic, but I saw your tweet complaining about the Monty Hall Problem and it’s been in my brain ever since… I can’t see the flaw with concluding that switching doors will win 2/3 of the time. What have I missed??
I do like the Ken Burns documentaries, so of course I had to laugh at your accurate description!
@The Unstoppable Gravy Express: nothing. I have no idea what MGK’s argument is, but he’s wrong. The explanation that convinced me is that if a stranger wandered on set after the door is opened then he’d have a 50% chance of guessing right, but that’s because he lacks the information you have – which door you picked originally.
Or, pragmatically: simulation proves the case.
@Zyzzyva: After thinking about it all morning, I’ve also come up with this way of explaining it… work out what’s behind the unchosen door (the one you didn’t pick that Monty didn’t open) in each scenario.
If you originally chose correctly, the unchosen door is 100% for sure a goat.
If you originally chose wrong, the unchosen door is 100% for sure a car.
Since there are 2 wrong doors to choose and only 1 correct door, the unchosen door has the car 2/3 of the time, and you should switch.
Or in table form:
YOUR CHOICE………………………Goat / Goat / Car
MONTY REVEALS…………………Goat / Goat / Goat
THEREFORE OTHER DOOR HAS: Car / Car / Goat
So in 2 of 3 cases, switching gets you the car.
After playing the simulation 20 times, changing my choice 10 times and keeping it 10 times…I had 20 goats. Dangers of small sample size, I guess. 🙂
@Candlejack: yup. 😀
The “run 1000 times” button grinds out 67-33 pretty consistently.
Why are they showing The Roosevelts: An Intimate History in Canada? Are you guys remotely interested?
My problem is that I’m incapable of approaching it as a statistical problem. I’ll always approach it as a psychological problem: why is Monty showing me the goat? Is he trying to shake me? To give me a hint? I have yet to see the problem posed in a fashion which would convince me that Monty’s motivations are irrelevant.
I don’t think that’s just your problem, I think that’s the problem.
If one of the rules of the game is “Monty is required to offer you a switch,” then you should definitely switch. But if Monty is allowed any discretion about when he makes a switch offer, it becomes a lot less clear (and in fact, you could argue that switching is a flat-out bad plan, on the “cider in your ear” principle).
Shad: Franklin Roosevelt was the first Canadian President of the United States.
Well, what if Monty is an evil wizard who can transform goats into cars and vice-versa with a twitch of his nose, then you’ll ALWAYS lose… unless you quickly behead him, then storm the stage and take the car by force!
I mean, you could answer “Lady & the Tiger” problems with “I put a slab of meat right outside the door and listen for growling” but that kind of misses the point.
Monty always shows you a goat.
It becomes clearer that switching is the winning move if you imagine that there are 100 doors, and Monty shows you 98 goats. You had a 1/100 chance of picking the car. Monty has left only one door closed, so 99/100, the door that Monty leaves closed must be the car. (This is basically Unstoppable Gravy Express’s argument, but with more doors.)
I wonder: does this “always switch” strategy work with Deal or No Deal, assuming that a high-value briefcase is still in play at the end of the game? I feel like it’s basically the same problem.