FLAPJACKS: Hey, log on to your internet. I want to show you something.
ME: Why do you never just use the internet at your house? Is it wolves again?
FLAPJACKS: Sadly, my house has become the primary conflict site for a very small but extremely intense ethnic conflict. If I surfed the net there, I might step on a landmine. You wouldn’t want that on your conscience, right? Think of what Sally Struthers would say.
ME: Sally Struthers?
FLAPJACKS: Isn’t she the one who hates landmines?
ME: Well, I’m sure she’s probably strongly anti-landmine, but I think she’s known for campaigning against hunger.
FLAPJACKS: Well, you can’t eat landmines, so I’m sure she’s with me on this.
ME: On letting you use my internet.
FLAPJACKS: Yes.

ME: Well.
FLAPJACKS: I know!
ME: I see Gerard Butler is still making bad career decisions.
FLAPJACKS: Excuse me, but I think we just saw the sleeper hit of 2009.
ME: What, are you serious? It is the latest “man in competitive reality show” type thing. So it’s a video game this time instead. So what?
FLAPJACKS: Ah, but this trailer debuted on XBox Live!
ME: So?
FLAPJACKS: So they are marketing themselves to their target audience intensely! And you know how they are doing that? By tapping into primordial desires.
ME: Primordial desires.
FLAPJACKS: You see, whenever a child plays Halo, what they are really doing is sublimating their desire to kill people.
ME: I’m pretty sure most psychologists would tell you that you are wrong. And probably also bad.
FLAPJACKS: Possibly, but so what?
ME: I don’t want Gabe and Tycho from Penny Arcade sending their goons over here.
FLAPJACKS: They have goons?
ME: It’s a recessionary economy. Goons are a dime a dozen now. I considered hiring a goon just yesterday but then realized I didn’t have anybody I needed roughed up.
FLAPJACKS: I thought only SomethingAwful had goons.
ME: No, they have Goons ™.
FLAPJACKS: I am always impressed by your ability to pronounce the trademark symbol.
ME: Thanks.
FLAPJACKS: But what’s the difference between SomethingAwful goons tee-em and regular goons?
ME: It’s like the difference between Bayer brand aspirins and regular aspirins.
FLAPJACKS: Ah.
ME: Exactly!
FLAPJACKS: Anyway, I’m sure they won’t send any goons, because I’m totally right about this. See, consider little Timmy playing on his XBox, killing people with Master Shake.
ME: Master Chief.
FLAPJACKS: I’m pretty sure you’re wrong about that. So Master Shake shoots a guy and then they hump his face. But it’s not enough! “Gosh,” thinks little Timmy, “it would be awesome if I could kill people for real, but have it be as easy as playing XBox.” See, little Timmy is, like most gamers, quick to realize his own physical limitations.
ME: Is little Timmy in fact giant big fat Timmy?
FLAPJACKS: Don’t play into people’s preconceptions of gamers!
ME: But they’re so often true.
FLAPJACKS: Whatever. Little Timmy is a paraplegic. His only joy in life comes from playing video games. Are you happy now? Little Timmy, stuck in his wheelchair forever, doomed to die one day of bed sores just like Christopher Reeve did. All he wants to do is blow somebody’s head off in a spray of pink mist and have it be for real, and then be able to tell his parents “LOOK, I’M DOING IT” as he stands up on unsteady legs, totters over to the corpse and humps it, but little Timmy can never do that so instead he has to imagine the last part. Why must you deny little Timmy that pleasure?
ME: Because it would be murder?
FLAPJACKS: Ah HA, but that is the genius of Gamer! In this movie, all the real people getting shot and killed are convicted criminals sentenced to die! So it is morally permissible to kill them, and then force the person you are controlling to hump the remnants of their face.
ME: You know, even in the United States, they really don’t hand out enough death sentences to justify the bodycount of a movie like this.
FLAPJACKS: I’m sure in the dystopic future there are plenty more people getting death sentences.
ME: But are they getting those sentences for crimes they in fact committed, or were they shoved into the justice system by corrupt enforcers looking for additional profit?
FLAPJACKS: Oh, come now. Michael C. Hall is the inventor of the game! Would Michael C. Hall play a character who was morally ambigious?
(Long pause.)
FLAPJACKS: Okay, maybe he would. Damn. Now I am all conflicted.
ME: How so?
FLAPJACKS: Because on the one hand I want to see Gerard Butler shoot shit up and hump people’s faces –
ME: What is with you and humping people’s faces?
FLAPJACKS: …it’s been a while.
ME: Ah.
FLAPJACKS: Anyway, but on the other hand, I don’t want to encourage outright murder! Except when I do. It’s complex. You have to take each murder into account separately, weigh and balance them, that sort of thing.
ME: What if you pretend that this is not Halo, but Gears of War instead, and instead of other people Gerard Butler is shooting horrible mutant things?
FLAPJACKS: That makes things much better!
ME: I thought it would.

Top comment: I can’t wait for the riveting, dramatic scene where Gerald Butler is going to die because the kid got his camera stuck in a corner. — NCallahan

LIKED

– The “sneak preview” of Glee. Although I think airing the premiere episode of a series Fox doesn’t plan to air for another three months is, how shall I say this, idiotic and a programming strategy that only Fox could come up with, this was one of the best pilots I’ve seen in a while; funny and clever, with great musical numbers, and it built to a ringing, enthusiastic finale that nonetheless obviously showed room for development and growth. All the better for it being unique among the current crop of television shows.

– Tower of Greed. Simple in execution yet incredibly addictive. The first Flash game I’ve played in a while that felt really fresh, despite the “keep going up or you die” concept being far from original; ToG’s system of giving you occasional options to opt out to finalize your score really puts a stamp on the style that’s a good gameplay twist, and the 80s-ish pixel graphics are exactly what I like to see in a platformer like this one.

– Marcos Martin’s “Saga of Captain America” backup feature in Captain America #50. Hey, what if all those Marvel Saga-type summaries Marvel is putting in their books these days to justify the extra dollar in price were actually something you wanted to see because they had gorgeous new art with a strong sense of design? Wouldn’t that be cool? Well, that’s what they did here. Marcos Martin has permission to draw anything he wants to for ever.

– Gaby Rojas’ audition on the first episode of So You Think You Can Dance. One of the rare times when Nigel’s praise was not in fact even a bit hyperbolic. Absolutely astounding, and one of the best solos on this program ever, be they auditions or competition or whatever. (Other solos that were excellent: Peter Sabasino the tapper, Kayla Rodomski who made her grandpa cry when she got through, and of course Natalie Reid and Brandon Bryant, who both would have made top 20 last year if it weren’t for the producers trying to spread out talent and also give a street dancer the best chance of winning.)

DIDN’T LIKE

– Terminator: Salvation. Loud and stupid and disappointing in all the wrong ways. A couple of really great action sequences, sure, but then again Star Wars: The Phantom Menace had a couple of really great action sequences and nobody says that was good (and the acting and dialogue in Terminator is as near-witless as the acting and dialogue in Menace). With the exception of Star Trek, the summer movie season this year is just floundering in terms of quality.

– Nigel Lythgoe’s burst of homophobia when presented with a same-sex ballroom couple (who were actually quite good technically despite a screwup). Nigel, your jokes weren’t funny (much like, you know, all your jokes ever), but worse you went from unfunny to outright offensive this time. Save the moralizing for… well, never.

I grew up at a rare time – when Star Trek: The Next Generation was airing new episodes. And it was a very, very cool show, not adored just by Trekkies/Trekkers/Trekkoes but by the general populace as well; more than anything, it was responsible for the eventual crossover success of sci-fi from the ghetto. This meant that everybody at school watched Star Trek: The Next Generation, which is something that didn’t really happen with any of the other Trek shows. I remember that 60,000 people crowded the Skydome (sorry, “Rogers Centre”) here in Toronto to watch the finale. As revered as a Battlestar Galactica or a Lost might be, they’re just not going to match that.

All of this is prelude to me saying that because I grew up at that time, Star Trek holds a special place in my heart (although not one of blind loyalty, because everything since DS9 has been frankly crap). Which is why it pleases me so much to say this:

The new Star Trek movie is only matched by The Wrath of Khan for the title of “best Star Trek movie ever made.”

Spoilers after the cut.

continue reading "Dream Big Or Go Home"

FLAPJACKS: Are you done with all your Dr. Strange crap yet?
ME: Yes. Why?
FLAPJACKS: Are you sure? I don’t want to have to hear about that giant space magic dragonfly thing again.
ME: I’m sure. What do you want?
FLAPJACKS: I want to use your computer to look at the new G.I. Joe trailer.
ME: What’s wrong with your computer?
FLAPJACKS: My internet connection was stolen by wolves.
ME: I think, for style points, you should have claimed that it was “eaten by dingoes.”
FLAPJACKS: Don’t be silly. Dingoes can’t eat the internet. But wolves, wolves can do many things with an internet connection.
ME: Like?
FLAPJACKS: Surf eBay for sheep. Learn about the latest henhouse-robbing techniques. Talk to each other about how foxes are just bitch-asses. That sort of thing. Now lemme watch the trailer already.

ME: Well.
FLAPJACKS: Yes.
ME: That was retarded.
FLAPJACKS: Come on now! It had super-suits! Don’t you remember the super-suits in the old cartoon?
ME: I think you’re wishing that that had happened.
FLAPJACKS: I’m not wrong to do so.
ME: Yes, you are. That trailer made the old cartoon look downright realistic. And the cartoon had, among other things: a talking parrot, approximately forty billion laser beams color-coded by side, a tribe of shapechangers, an alien race living beneath the earth, an army of robots that would make Cylons jealous, a vampire youth machine, Atlanteans, a giant blob which the Joes killed by throwing apples at it, a trip to a parallel universe where some of the team found their own bodies, sea serpents, Cobra trying to steal Alaska because of some technicality regarding a seal, giant energy-sucking cubes of dark matter, a bio-dome in the Antarctic, a device that vaporized all of the world’s money, ghost warriors, a magic conch shell that hypnotized men but not women, time-traveling to ancient Greece, the Baroness disguising herself as a chunky fat guy not once but four separate times, Destro attempting to take over the world with giant vegetables, Cobra shrinking its entire army to miniscule size and hiding in toys given away to needy children, the Egyptian god Set, Cobra setting up its own television channel and trying to take over the world with propaganda, dinosaur stampedes, an evil clone of the talking parrot, subliminal messages in rock songs, a crime telethon, and Sgt. Slaughter.
FLAPJACKS: I bet Sarah Palin saw that episode of G.I. Joe with the Alaska thing like, ten thousand times when she was a kid.
ME: You are not addressing my point, which is that the super-suits are more stupid than all of those other things combined. Also, Snake-Eyes has lips. Who the hell thought that was a good idea?
FLAPJACKS: The same costume designer who gave Batman nipples, obviously. He’s working up to his apex, which is form-fitting latex pants which clearly display a man’s junk in all three dimensions.
ME: And this is a good thing, is it?
FLAPJACKS: I don’t judge. You should be more like me. You’re too judgey.
ME: You notice that Joseph Gordon-Levitt isn’t in any of these commercials? I mean, the guy is supposed to be Cobra Commander. Why is Destro being made out to be the big bad guy?
FLAPJACKS: I will bet you twenty dollars that this is all prequel, and Joseph whatsisname is actually just a Cobra grunt who rises to become Cobra Commander when Destro fucks everything up. Also I bet you by the end of the movie Destro is horribly disfigured and has to wear a mask. You know how I know this? Because this was co-written by the guy who wrote Swordfish. You have to have faith in a man like that!
ME: I don’t remember that one.
FLAPJACKS: Hugh Jackman as a computer hacker.
ME: What, seriously? Have they ever seen a computer hacker?
FLAPJACKS: No, and that is what made the movie totally great. It was all like “hey man what do you think hackers are like in real life?” and then the other guy was all “I bet they are awesome studly dudes” and then he was all “and I bet elite special forces terrorists would totally blow up people and the explosion would be like KERFOWWWWW.” It was a movie written by a shut-in who wished he was James Bond, which is why Hacker Hugh Jackman has to hack something while getting a blowjob.
ME: Because that happens all the time to hackers.
FLAPJACKS: It would if I were a hacker. I would make that sort of occurrence more statistically probable all by myself.
ME: You came over to my apartment to watch a trailer on the internet and you expect me to believe that?
FLAPJACKS: ANYWAY, my point is that Swordfish is a movie totally divorced from reality. And that is why G.I. Joe is going to be great. It’s not going to make any sense whatsoever. And people will be all “maybe this is a satire, like Starship Troopers,” and they will desperately try to make it make sense, but it won’t because it has Marlon Wayans in it, AKA “the least talented Wayans.”
ME: Ahem. Kim Wayans.
FLAPJACKS: Fair point, although I would point out that Shawn Wayans sucked both as a comedian and a pretend DJ.
ME: Hey, whatever happened to T’keyah “Crystal” Keymah, anyway? She was cute.
FLAPJACKS: Wikipedia says she was eaten by dingoes.
ME: Huh.
FLAPJACKS: Just goes to show you.

Top comment: Damnit, I thought it said super-sluts. And then I was very disappointed by the paucity of super-sluts. — dev

So the blogosphere is starting to go abuzz about Observe and Report‘s date rape scene. Specifically, of the “Jody Hill is an asshole because he used date rape for a gag” thing.

Now, if you want to say that date rape is de facto impossible to use for comic purposes, that’s an entirely valid argument to make, and I understand it and honestly sympathize. But a lot of people who haven’t actually seen Observe and Report are making snap judgements about the movie, and honestly, that shit just irritates me as much as when Christians made up their minds about Dogma without seeing it.

I have seen it. I didn’t pay, I theatre-hopped to see it.1 In retrospect, it doesn’t pass the “would have paid money to see it” test for me. And here is the thing…

Observe and Report is a very, very, very dark comedy. It doesn’t just use date rape as a vehicle for comedy; it uses violence, drug abuse, sexual harassment, and a myriad number of other really horrible things, and it doesn’t cartoonize any of it at all, not one bit – this is not a HEY BIG LAFFS comedy. This is a comedy of the “make you as uncomfortable as humanly possible” variety, so much so that it frequently jumps into anticomedy territory, and I don’t think for one second that this was anything other than intentional. Just about every character in the movie is basically a terrible fucking human being – especially Seth Rogen and Anna Faris’ characters2 – and the movie’s entire message is a warped and nihilistic one. (It is entirely possible that large parts of it happen only in Seth Rogen’s character’s head.)

Yes, i’m aware that Seth Rogen and Anna Faris and all are promoting the movie and trying to play up the date rape scene as being light and fluffy and not really date rape. That is because they are not morons and have no interest in committing career suicide by saying “yeah, the movie is about horrible unlikable people and there’s a date rape scene and the movie doesn’t even try to make it okay.” Which – I don’t think it does, not at all, not even with Faris’ “consent”-but-not-actually line, because the entire scene is so intensely gross and the line doesn’t alleviate that at all. (Incidentally, Jody Hill has made it clear in interviews that the studio demanded the inclusion of the line, and I can see that – he wasn’t going for any sense of “okay it’s all right now” at any point in that scene.) And yes, I think this was entirely by design. Of course, your mileage may vary.

Studios do not want to work with professional actors who say “our movie is designed to unsettle you and make you uncomfortable and question all the other mindless entertainment that gets shoved down your throats. We made an indie movie and are pretending it is a standard Hollywood chucklefest, just like Paul Blart Mall Cop, so that you dumbshits will spend money on it. Fuck you, Middle America.”

And… look, I study speech issues quite a bit, and although I am not a total one hundred percent free-speech demander… I think how some people have been saying that date rape can never be the source for comedy is the sort of absolutism that worries me a bit. I understand there are power issues at play here, but at the same time saying “you can NEVER do that” denies the opportunity to make a thoughtful attempt at it, and although I don’t think Observe and Report manages it – it’s really still too much ick-factor for me to appreciate the scene as comedy – I can’t say that the potential doesn’t exist because there is nothing borne out of pain that cannot be turned into a joke by someone who knows how to do it right. There have been murder jokes for as long as there have been people, pedophilia jokes for as long as there has been Michael Jackson, and those are two of the worst goddamn things there are.3

Every Jewish comedian has a dozen jokes about the Holocaust, and of those dozen jokes, half were written by non-Jewish comedians who didn’t feel comfortable telling the joke but who were willing to pass it over to the Jewish comedians (with their approval, of course) because the instinct of every comic writer is to question, to mock, to say the unthinkable, and it’s a vitally necessary instinct in our society.

And it does bother me a bit to read myriad knee-jerk responses, all of the same variety: “I haven’t seen the movie, but doing that is disgusting and they shouldn’t have done that, playing date rape for cheap laughs.” Again: I understand where the response comes from, and I sympathize, but it bothers me to have what Jody Hill and Seth Rogen and Anna Faris did as “cheap” when it was anything but. Faris and Rogen have made their careers playing lovable goofballs and both worked dramatically against type here, playing a pair of pretty goddamned loathsome losers. And I don’t think Hill pulled off the date-rape scene at all, but it wasn’t “for cheap laughs” – it was carefully constructed and designed to provoke a certain, nervous reaction, one that I think was intended to be at least partially if not mostly unpleasant.

I can’t stress enough my belief that the scene was intended to provoke thought. And although it can fail as art or commentary – well, maybe “we’ve made them laugh, now we have to make them THINK” is a cliche, but it’s still valid.

EDIT TO ADD: A little more ruminating, and I think I’ve come up with the best way to summarize Observe and Report: it’s subversive. And by “subversive,” I don’t mean Hollywood subversive, where the word means “there are some pointed jokes directed at authority figures and a kickin’ indie soundtrack,” but genuinely subversive – it’s a movie that takes the now-standard heroic-schlub movie tropes and totally deconstructs them by having the heroic schlub be a far more realistic useless fat asshole with delusional fantasies that in reality are really just power trips and barely-sublimated violent urges, who then acts out said violent delusional fantasies while convinced he’s the “good guy” who’s gonna get the girl of his dreams (who’s similarly horrible). It’s like Travis Bickle got fatter, stupider, and even more crazy – that’s Observe and Report, a movie about what would happen if Paul Blart was a for real dude.

And that’s why it makes perfect sense that the studio would demand that Anna Faris tell Seth Rogen, mid-date-rape, to keep going; there’s no such thing as a studio that wants the hero of their potentially marketable comedy to be a rapist, so of course they would look for the most convenient out available. Because studios don’t like subversive movies.

1. From a sneak preview of 17 Again, which incidentally is far more enjoyable than anything with Zac Efron has a right to be. SHUT UP YOU, I AM DAMNED MANLY. [↩]
2. No, the fact that Anna Faris’ character is a terrible fucking human being doesn’t “justify” her being date raped. That is not my point. [↩]
3. Of course, the counter to that point is “well, murder jokes are really about the universal indignity of death, and we’re all scared of that.” That doesn’t really explain the pedo jokes, though. And if you tell me you don’t know at least one really horrifically funny joke about pedophilia, you’re lying or sheltered. [↩]

Over at Pajiba, Dustin Rowles calls out Gore Verbinski for booting out of the fourth Pirates of the Caribbean flick to instead direct the film adaptation of Bioshock.

Leaving aside the question of whether it is a good idea for Verbinski to jump ship, so to speak – and I would say “hell yes,” given that the third Pirates was lacklustre throughout and gasping at the overly-long finish – there then follows extended dialogue about whether or not there is even a point to directing a film version of Bioshock, since the game itself is essentially an interactive movie with a rich plot, gorgeous visual ethos and numerous action sequences beyond the usual “shoot things and walk through corridors” experience of first-person gaming.

I think there is, for the same reason I think there’s a movie (or movies) to be made out of the Half-Life series of games: the protagonist is a blank slate. Your character in Bioshock says literally nothing during the course of the game. Things happen to him and are revealed to him (or her, who knows), but his actions within the game do not serve to illuminate anything about the personality of the protagonist.

That alone offers up a whole new avenue of storytelling opportunity for anyone looking to make a filmic version of the game, and serves to differ a film from the game. And that’s why I think Verbinski’s choice is the right one.

Top comment: Right ’cause a sheep can’t enjoy its sexuality without being labeled a slut! Such a double standard! Typical of this anthropocentric humanthiarcal society! Dworkin was right: all interspecies sex is rape! I long for the day this is not true and the sheep are finally treated as equals! — Al

What’s the best “rescue” moment in an action movie? The moment when the hero is absolutely fucked, completely about to get killed/ass-kicked/etc. by the villains in violent manner, and then suddenly his friend/ally shows up, fighting ensues, and the hero is (for the moment) saved?

My vote goes to The Crow, when Eric Draven is on his knees with his powers removed and Top Dollar is ranting in top-tier villain form and his smart henchman has the actual crow cornered and then all of a sudden Ernie Hudson shows up and starts shooting the fuck out of everything. I like it because it’s got a nice layer of believability after the unreal nature of the film thus far; Eric Draven dives for cover rather than immediately resume fighting and the gunfight isn’t ridiculous at all, and let’s be honest; you and I will never be rescued from baddies by Jason Statham or Robert Downey Jr., but we might if we are lucky get a last-minute save from a slightly overweight Ernie Hudson.

So what do you guys think?

Hey, MGK’ers – very occasional guest-poster Dan Solomon here. I’ve spent the past few days busying myself with the SXSW Film Festival in Austin, TX, and I wanted to share with you the future of film as we know it. Or something like that – anyway, here is a report on the first five movies I’ve seen.

The Snake
What It Is: A debut comedy about a serious sleaze who joins a support group for people with poor body-image because he wants to do it with one of the girls, and seduces her by enabling her bulimia.
Who’s In It: The co-directors and their girlfriends, some actors you’ve never heard of in your life, and, inexplicably, Margaret Cho for about two minutes.
Is It Good? Actually, it’s amazing. The screening on Friday night was introduced by Patton Oswalt, who hasn’t got a film in the festival, or even a gig in town – he was just taken enough by the picture to help promote it. His promotion included name-dropping the fact that other famous folks, like Joss Whedon, had seen the screener and loved it. If I were famous, he could cite me, too – The Snake is hilarious, and it manages to make a comedy about a protagonist with no redeeming qualities that neither offers him redemption nor asks you to sympathize with him in any way.
How It Will Change Film As We Know It: The thing, while it’s drop-dead hysterical, looks like it may as well have been shot on a cell phone camera. The sound in certain scenes is full of background noise that makes you strain to hear the actors. Technically, the thing is a mess. And after five minutes, there’s no reason to care. If this one catches on, it could change the rules a bit in the same way that Clerks did fifteen years ago.

Alexander the Last
What It Is: The fifth movie from some dude named Joe Swanburg about how it’s really really hard to be a white person with artistic and creative ambition in your twenties in New York, and how it’s especially hard to be that sort of person and married, because you’ll be attracted to other people sometimes and you might have to stop being 100% self-absorbed for a little while as you decide not to fuck anyone else.
Who’s In It: The girl from Teeth is the female lead, some skinny dude with a punchable face is the male lead, and the dude who played Grover in Kicking and Screaming (the 90’s one, not the Will Ferrell one) has a small part.
Is It Good? It is most decidedly not good, no. The film expects you to be concerned enough with the plight of these attractive people who do nothing but make art and googly-eyes at each other all day that it doesn’t give them any sort of personality at all. And I’m not being mean and saying, oh, their personalities are bland, therefore they don’t have them – seriously, there’s nothing to them, like, as a stylistic choice. It tries to be a character-based picture, but it tells us nothing about the characters. Big-time flop.
How It Will Change Film As We Know It: It had its world premiere last night at SXSW, and it was simultaneously shown on IFC, which could potentially be a new business model, I guess. It could also inspire a bunch of similar navel-gazing, if it somehow becomes a hit.

Pontypool
What It Is: Holy cow, pretty much the coolest, scariest horror movie since, I dunno, the last cool, scary horror movie.
Who’s In It: Stephen McHattie, who played Hollis Mason in Watchmen, is the lead here as the Kinky Friedman-esque iconoclastic host of a small Ontario town’s radio morning show.
Is It Good? The first 2/3 of the movie are fucking incredible. I don’t want to go into too much detail, but it’s a rare horror movie that’s able to be as tense and that terrifying as Pontypool without showing you much of anything in the way of scary images. The thing falls apart a little bit toward the end, when it tries (with a plot point cribbed from Snow Crash) to explain what’s behind the “horror” incident.
How It Will Change Film As We Know It: Giving Stephen McHattie some more work would be a significant enough achievement, but I suspect Pontypool is successful enough at finding a genuinely original way to scare audiences and defy convention that it will be ripped off for years to come.

Snowblind
What It Is: A documentary about Rachel Scdoris, the first legally blind athlete to race in the Iditarod.
Who’s In It: Rachel Scdoris, duh. Also her dad, whom the director seemed to try turn into a bad guy even though he didn’t deserve it, as well as Joe Runyan, a former Iditarod champion.
Is It Good? Kinda? Not particularly compelling, which is mind-blowing, considering the source material. You can tell that the director didn’t have much rapport with Scdoris, as she’s pretty guarded through the whole thing, and there’s not really an actual narrative or viewpoint – we just follow her around as she races, and occasionally her dad is played as a jerk living vicariously through her. Some of the photography is amazing, though.
How It Will Change Film As We Know It: I can’t imagine it will, really. Maybe they’ll do it as a narrative film, a la Snow Buddies? That’d be cool.

Anvil!: The Story of Anvil
What It Is: Anvil were a powerhouse of Canadian heavy metal that inspired Metallica, Slayer, Megadeth, and more. They toured Japan and were cited as monsters of rock and roll, back in 1982. A few years later, they were working crappy day-jobs and forgotten, while their peers were busy getting famous. This is the story of what went wrong.
Who’s In It: The dudes from Anvil, of course, as well as metal luminaries like Lars Ulrich, Lemmy, Slash, and more, most of whom spend their screen time gushing over how good Anvil were.
Is It Good? Absolutely. This is one of those documentaries like Murderball or Spellbound that sells its story better than fiction ever could. Mostly it’s due to subjects who are endlessly fascinating, a couple lucky breaks in the events that heighten the drama, and a lot of compassion for the people on screen.
How It Will Change Film As We Know It: Film? Who knows. Rock and roll? Well, Anvil are playing a showcase during SXSW Music now, thanks to the newfound attention they’re receiving in response to the documentary. If it’s not too late for some dudes in their 50’s to become rock stars after all, then everything you thought you knew about when to give up your dreams is wrong.

The festival’s only a few days old, so that’s all I’ve got. If there’s anything else amazing going on, I may sneak in another post.

Watchmen (the movie) is really quite bad.

continue reading "It’s bad."

“From the animation studio that brought you Wonder Horseface now comes Green Lantern With Lockjaw (Not The Alien Dog, The Disease).”

Top comment: I’d still rather watch it than the “Superman: Doomsday” movie, which gave me brain cancer. — Matt

8:14: We are informed that nobody will ever forget the name of Viola Davis for her performance in Doubt. I would suggest that just maybe this is optimistic and that in three months’ time Viola Davis will be a hard-to-answer trivia question.

8:15: Some schmuck kisses Miley Cyrus’ ass. How much self-worth does one lose by kissing up to Miley Cyrus, for god’s sake? If that were my job, I would cry myself to sleep at night. Every night. Forever.

8:16: Apparently a bunch of designers had a contest to see who could dress Miley Cyrus. There is an entire kissing-Miley-Cyrus’-ass industry now. Are they affected by the economic downturn at all? This is what I wonder about.

8:17: Because people asked: Slumdog Millionaire, Danny Boyle, Mickey Rourke, Kate Winslet, Heath Ledger and Penelope Cruz. (EDIT: Slumdog and Wall-E for adapted and original screenplay, Wall-E for animated and Waltz With Bashir for foreign film.)

8:19: The accountants guarding the winning envelopes with their very lives walk down the red carpet. This is the MOST IMPORTANT THING THEY WILL EVER DO YOU GUYS. The voiceover people blather about their choice of tuxedo, because – I don’t know. “They make it work,” apparently, which now means “they look awkward and nerdy.”

8:21: They are using special computer technology to show the history of Penelope Cruz’ Oscar dresses. Somewhere, a space shuttle is not flying because of this, you realize.

8:23: Miley Cyrus’ schmuck confirms that he is gay by explaining how he loves to see Marisa Tomei with her clothes on. (Marisa Tomei, incidentally, looks early-to-mid-twenties tonight. Damn, is that woman aging well.)

8:25: Apparently they redesigned the Kodak Theatre so it doesn’t look like a boring high school auditorium with a lot of money. The musical director explains how he’s going to do tons of Oscar-worthy themes with a big brass band motif. This can only end in tragedy.

8:31: Hugh Jackman’s monologue. Mock-bitter joke about Australia (which I think really got way too much flack – sure it’s too long, but it’s ambitious and more fun than a lot of critics gave it credit for).

8:32: And now he’s singing. Much like Billy Crystal, minus about ten thousand pounds of ham and all the horrible Bruce Valensch jokes, plus actual musical talent. I’m not gonna bitch about this – no, wait, now he’s spelling “M-I-L-K.” Oh, Hugh.

8:33: Back into the plus columns with a nice dance with “the Craigslist dancers,” a good bit about The Dark Knight and a funny setup about Benjamin Button.

8:35: My adoration for Anne Hathaway continues unabated. Why is she in shit like Bride Wars? She’s fucking funny, people, the first genuinely talented comedic actress to come along in a very long time. Give her a funny script and she’s gonna deliver.

8:37: “The Reader! I haven’t seen The Reader!” Okay, Hugh Jackman can now host this show forever, or at least alternating years with Jon Stewart or maybe Steve Martin if Steve Martin promises to stop making Pink Panther movies.

8:39: “Mickey Rourke! You look great!” Hugh Jackman is as good a liar as he is a singer and dancer!

8:40: They have trouble opening the curtain of the theatre for the Best Supporting Actress acceptance montage, which amuses me tremendously.

8:42: As is traditional, the first award is a Best Supporting award, and I think it’s almost always Actress, isn’t it? They get Tilda Swinton (who is apparently wearing a shopping bag), Eva Marie Saint, Goldie Hawn, Angelica Huston and Whoopi “Oscar’s Greatest Mistake” Goldberg to present the award in as long a manner as humanly possible, because we have been informed that only elitists and nogoodniks want to see the more technical awards get even a slightly reasonable amount of time.

8:45: Whoopi Goldberg makes a joke about Amy Adams being a nun! Because before her career went to hell, she had a hit movie about being a nun, you see.

8:46: If they present every fucking acting award like this, with five actors giving the five nominees massive motherfucking blowjobs, I may vomit.

8:47: Penelope Cruz wins, thus disproving the “leaked Oscar list” that was making the rounds earlier in the week with the very first award. She thanks Woody Allen for writing great female characters, which is code for “thank you for not trying to fuck me, you disgusting old pervert.”

8:52: Steve Martin and Tina Fey present the screenplay awards. Good jokes, with a dig at Scientology (thank you, Steve Martin, for absolutely refusing to treat it seriously – an honorary “V for Vendetta” Guy Fawkes mask is yours!). You will note the lack of blowjobs for the writers.

8:56: Original screenplay: Dustin Lance Black for Milk. I was rooting for Wall-E, but the Milk script is quite good, so this is a perfectly acceptable choice of award. Dustin Lance Black pretty bluntly slams the Mormon church in his speech and pretty movingly uses his whole speech to slam homophobia right in the nuts, as is appropriate.

9:00: Adapted screenplay: Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionare, and if you believe that this is when Oscar juggernauts begin – well, it’s not looking good for Benjamin Button, shucky-darn.

9:02: Jennifer Aniston and Jack Black remind everybody that Jennifer Aniston exists, which is very important for some reason. Black makes a vicious joke about Dreamworks’ continual asskicking by Pixar which accidentally makes the audience go “oooh.”

9:04: An animated montage sequence. Why did we need to be reminded that Space Chimps came out last year? Anybody? Can anybody explain that one? Was this some vitally fucking important point we had all forgotten? God knows I tried to forget about Space Chimps.

9:07: Wall-E wins Best Animated Picture, which surprises absolutely nobody.

9:08: Jack Black doing comedic banter with Jennifer Aniston is like Roger Federer playing tennis with Stephen Hawking.

9:09: And Best Short Animated Film: La Maison en Petit Cubes. No, I haven’t seen it either. Japanese winner guy, acutely aware of his very poor English, ends with “Domi arigato, Mr. Roboto,” which just goes to show that Styx have contributed something to society after all.

9:12: You know, only the Canadian viewers will get this, but they just aired a commercial for the new Petro-Canada Olympics glasses, and don’t those new glasses suck? The Calgary glasses were nice because there were so many different types of glass, so you could pick and choose. These new ones, there’s only one type of glass and it’s a pretty lame glass. My point here is that I want nicer commorative glasses from my petrochemical industry giants, please.

9:14: The set and design awards! Apparently this whole night is going to be thematic for the non-major awards. Maybe they mentioned it earlier, who knows.

9:17: Art direction: Benjamin Button. Anybody hoping for some Dark Knight technical awards – not here, this almost always goes to period dramas. The two art director people give a boring speech and are not cut off. That’s about as much as I can hope for.

9:20: Costume design goes to The Duchess, because it’s a romantic period drama with lots of ruffles in it and people assume that lots of ruffles means tougher costuming, which is so not the case but whatever. Costume design winner thanks everybody except his family. Maybe he lives alone. On a hill. With a dog. A dead dog, which he doesn’t feel the need to thank.

9:23: Benjamin Button wins Best Makeup, and two technical wins gives it a bit more oomph. Maybe it’s still in the running! (Meh.) The makeup winner does the “read everyone to thank from a card” thing before the demon time-counters scream at him and call him names.

9:25: The dork from Twilight and the dead girl from Veronica Mars introduce a recap of the romantic movies of 2008. Boy, I sure am glad that these BLATANT FUCKING COMMERCIALS are taking up telecast time! God knows we can’t do without the montage sequences, but can’t they at least be vaguely historical montage sequences? Is that too much to ask? Christ.

9:28: Included in the “romantic moments” montage: Bruce and Betty’s reunion in The Incredible Hulk and actual footage from such notable films like High School Musical 3 and Marley and Me. I will find the person who did this and cut them to death with a rusty spoon. No, really. A rusty spoon.

9:31: Natalie Portman and Ben Stiller introduce the cinematography awards. Ben Stiller does a Joaquim Phoenix impersonation. OH BEN STILLER YOU ARE SO TOPICAL!

9:35: Slumdog wins Best Cinematography, and I have no comment, mostly because my professional chef roommate just handled me a professional chef quality Manwich. (The difference between your standard Manwich and the professional-level Manwich is meat quality, re-spicing, and the braised cabbage mixed in.)

9:38: Jessica Biel was apparently this year’s “official pretty girl” for the Scientific and Technical Awards, which are held off-site so that the nerds don’t get within smell-range of the beautiful people. Hooray for the nerds! And now they will not be mentioned for the rest of the evening.

9:43: James Franco and Seth Rogen do a bit as their characters in Pineapple Express, minus any actual pot jokes. What is the fucking point of something like this?

9:45: Hey, how long do you think before they decide that categories like Best Live-Action Short Film would be better served by airing on the web, so they have more time to tell us about the upcoming highlights at Blockbuster? I give them five years, tops.

9:53: Hugh Jackman and Beyonce do a musical tribute to… uh… musicals, I guess… which doesn’t really make sense, to be honest, but what the hell.

9:54: You know, I finally figured out what I like about Hugh Jackman’s hosting style – it’s a return to old-school gladhanding happy-talk, just like Bob Hope used to do back in the day. We’ve come so far into the era of irony that traditional smarm is cutting-edge now.

9:58: Baz Luhrmann is apparently to blame responsible for creating that musical number. Easiest paycheque in history. Next year they can call me for a “history of hit singles from soundtracks” musical montage! I’ll take four words from “Miss Misery,” six from “Into the West,” eleven from “Hold Me Thrill Me Kiss Me Kill Me”…

10:01: And now it’s time for blowjob montage #2, because it’s clearly time for Best Supporting Actor. Your fellatioteers this time around are Christopher Walken, Cuba Gooding Jr. (presumably they found him on a street corner begging for change somewhere), Alan Arkin, Kevin Kline, and Joel Grey in the designated “Older Person Who Won A Long Time Ago Who Works Cheap” slot.

10:05: I hope Christopher Walken gets to do the Heath Ledger tribute and just says “He’s dead. So he should win. Fuck you.”

10:06: And of course Ledger wins, because come on, this was a fucking lock. Heath’s family accepts the award for him. The audience gives them a standing ovation because Heath Ledger is dead. In a moment of tasteful montage, the directors decide to cut away to famous people reacting to their speech rather than stay on the speech itself. Hey, did you want to know how Adrien Brody would react to this sad moment? Were you curious to see if Brangelina would show emotion? WELL NOW YOU KNOW!

10:11: I actually don’t have a problem with the documentary roundup of 2008, because come on – they’re documentaries. Celebrating what people don’t watch (but should) is inherently more valuable a use of time than reminding us that Stepbrothers got made last year. I remembered Stepbrothers. I was fine without it.

10:13: And Bill Maher is presenting the documentary awards, because… I dunno, Bill Maher “keeps it real?” Then he plugs Religulous multiple times. Which sucks shit, by the way.

10:15: Man On Wire wins best doc, which is no shock because it was so universally adored. Including by me. It’s awesome. If you haven’t seen it yet, you should. The doc-makers thank their families, and the last guy hams it up by disappearing a coin from his hand.

10:17: Smile, Pinky wins best doc short. See comment at 9:45. Repeat.

10:19: Trailer for Angels and Demons. Flapjacks has a theory that Tom Hanks spent fifteen years making mostly excellent movies so that he could viciously surprise everybody by starring in Dan Brown adaptations, making him the most sadistic person in the universe.

10:21: Hey, did you know there were action movies in 2008? I know! (And this makes the third montage The Incredible Hulk has appeared in tonight. Truly, the Hulk is all things to all people.)

10:25: Will Smith! Because he loves action movies! Because he gets a lot of money to be in them! And because Seven Pounds sucked! It’s time for the computer-and-sound-effects awards, folks!

10:26: Benjamin Button wins best CGI over Iron Man and Dark Knight, because – I dunno, probably because it’s more “respectable.”

10:29: Sound editing goes to The Dark Knight even though Slumdog is nominated in the same category. Do not ask me to explain the Academy, people. I can’t do it.

10:30: Sound mixing goes to Slumdog. Now I really can’t explain it. Trends? There are no trends! Not this year!

10:32: The guy accepting for Slumdog is giving exactly the type of speech I like from a technical nobody. “This is not just an award, you are making me a part of history.” That’s what I call thanking.

10:34: Editing goes to Slumdog as well. (I got nothing. It happens.)

10:41: Jerry Lewis gets the Humanitarian Award this year, because of his work with muscular dystrophy. It’s a good cause and he’s done a lot of work for it. But Christ, he is such an asshole. So let us all remember that assholes can do good things. (Also, he looks like he’s gotten a lot of work done just for the occasion.)

10:46: Trailer for that movie where Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds are in a romantic comedy except it’s not romantic or funny.

10:50: Time for the music awards. It is an orchestral Whitman’s Sampler of the Best Score nominees! Which actually serves to remind me how much I liked the score for Milk, oddly enough. (It’s not exactly a movie where you think, “oh, hey, that’s a movie with an awesome score!”)

10:53: Zac Efron and Alicia Keys are presenting the awards, because one of them sings badly in movies and the other… does not.

10:54: A.R. Rahman wins Best Score for Slumdog Millionaire, which makes sense because it was a movie with a fantastic score and soundtrack (although it sounded really lame coming out of a Western-style orchestra with one lousy sitar). He thanks his dead mother, and what can you say about that other than you would do the same?

10:55: WHAT THE FUCK THEY ARE NOT EVEN DOING THE WHOLE SONGS FOR “BEST SONG”? There are only three nominees for this award now! But NO, we can be informed of all the wonderful ways that The Incredible Hulk can touch us, because that’s far more important than giving us full performances for the songs. This is total bullshit.

10:58: John Legend covering Peter Gabriel is like someone who is not very good covering somebody who is.

11:00: And now it is a fucking live mashup of “Jai Ho” and “Down To Earth” (which, incidentally, are two of the best songs to be nominated for this award in years). I am vaguely ill.

11:01: “Jai Ho” wins, because come on – the moment you saw that Bollywood dance number you knew it was gonna win this.

11:05: Liam Neeson and Oldest Latika From Slumdog present Best Foreign Film, because they are foreigns. Departures wins, and wouldn’t you know it it’s the only one in the category I haven’t seen yet? What the hell can I say? “A classic musician in a mortuary – that’s so Japanese!” Nah.

11:10: Queen Latifah (hey, remember when she was a rapper?) introduces the In Memorial reel. And then she sings, because what the In Memorial reel really needed was some glitzing up. Jesus H. Christ. On top of that, the whole thing is set on smaller screens with panning camera angles, because that makes death more exciting or something, I’m not sure. Cyd Charisse’ entire tribute gets lost in a long-distance shot. I want the fucking heads of the show directors now, because they are fucking up absolutely everything I like about the Oscars.

11:16: Biggest applause rounds: Michael Crichton, Harold Pinter, Roy Scheider, Isaac Hayes, Stan Winston, Sydney Pollack and (by far) Paul Newman.

11:18: The Academy president declines to make a speech. Good.

11:19: Reese Witherspoon is giving away the Best Director award? Wait, it goes before the Best Actor and Actress awards now? You know, the reason it usually goes second last is because it almost always telegraphs the Best Picture winner, guys…

11:20: And Danny Boyle wins it for Slumdog Millionaire, and I have absolutely zero complaints for a bit here because Danny Boyle is one of my favorite directors of all time (yes, I even liked The Beach), and he even apologizes to the guy he left out of the credits by accident, which is class because every second spent apologizing is a second he could have spent thanking Important People For His Career but instead he glossed over most of them. Boyle is awesome sauce.

11:25: Best Actress time. This time around the Circle of Five is comprised of Sophia Loren, Shirley MacLaine, Halle Berry (who was sitting next to Cuba Gooding Jr.), Nicole Kidman and Marion “I won this last year and you already forgot about me didn’t you” Cotillard. Blah blah blah we love you ladies blah blah blah. Hey, program director: it’s called “show, don’t tell.” It applies to television like this just as it applies to any other story, real or fictional, you might want to fucking tell.

11:29: Melissa Leo is luminous, yo.

11:30: Sophia Loren looks disdainful to even have to say the words “Meryl Streep.” Which is kind of awesome in its way. Sophia Loren does not give a shit, everybody, and she wants you to be sure you know she doesn’t give a shit.

11:32: And Kate Winslet FINALLY GETS HER FUCKING STATUE. And because she is Kate Winslet of course she has to hug all the other ladies and kiss them on the cheek. Standing ovation, entirely demanded. Then she asks her dad to whistle so she can see where her parents are and he does and that’s fantastic. And then she thanks everybody in the whole world, or it seems like it anyway. And then she says Meryl Streep is awesome and that’s great too.

11:36: Best Actor reception montage, which of course means that the new cast of “Voltron” must assemble: Robert De Niro (Hunk), Ben Kingsley (Pidge), Anthony Hopkins (Sven), Adrien Brody (Keith) and Michael Douglas (Lance).

11:39: Robert De Niro tries to rattle off a list of Sean Penn’s various characters, but can’t quite do it, so he substitutes “Dead Man Walking” in the middle as if that was the name of the character. Which was funnier than his for-real joke.

11:43: Sean Penn picks up his second statue for Milk. “You Commie, homo-loving sonsaguns.” Heh. Then he admits that he can get on people’s nerves (heh), thanks the people he really cares about and doesn’t bother with the studios at all. And he winds up by telling everybody who voted for Prop 8 “fuck you” (in so many words), and specifically gives Mickey Rourke props. Good speech.

11:47: Steven “The King Of All Hollywood” Spielberg introduces a montage that is part a tribute to the Best Picture nominees and part using old quotes from previous Best Picture winners to comment on said pictures. It’s a little overdone, but pretty clever. (Unintentional comedy moment: using the famous William Wallace speech from Braveheart in the Milk montage. Methinks Mel Gibson would object if he thought he could get away with objecting.)

11:52: And Slumdog ends the night with the big win. And that’s perfectly all right, since it was a very good movie – not as good as some might have argued, perhaps, but good, and certainly not an embarrassment to win this thing. And that, for tonight, after a largely dreadful Oscar telecast (seriously, the worst in years, with a parsimonious attitude towards running time that’s become downright embarrassing), is enough. Good night, Weehauken!

WHY THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s finally the big-swing Best Picture contender directed by David Fincher with Brad Pitt in it that a generation has been waiting for. Because it made the most money out of all the contenders. Because people genuinely like it. Because people think Cate Blanchett means Oscar-worthy movie, even when that isn’t the case.

WHY THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s Forrest Gump with fancier CGI and a weirder premise. Because just as many people genuinely hate it as genuinely like it. Because it’s been doing poorly in the awards everywhere else. Because it’s two and a half hours of creepy with fifteen minutes of touching.

WHY MILK WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s actually the best picture nominated. Because its story is coming at the right time when people in the film industry Want To Say Something about gay rights. Because it has tons and tons of good performances in it, and more than a couple of brilliant ones. Because Harvey Milk is here to recruit you.

WHY MILK WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because if it’s going to win awards for its acting, it will win them in the acting categories. Because despite its excellence, it definitely lags a bit in the middle and skips and hops through its narrative at other points. Because the fact that Hollywood is gay-friendly doesn’t mean it feels the need to give this movie an award that might otherwise feel unearned. Because the movie feels like a vehicle for Sean Penn more than anything else.

WHY SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s a feel-good movie that’s so brilliantly made that you can almost forget it’s a feel-good movie. Because it’s a modern-day fairy tale. Because it has the best soundtrack of an Oscar-worthy film in years if not more. Because it managed to become a crowd-pleasing favourite with zero white characters and one-third of the movie being subtitled. Because it, at this point, has the big mo’. Because it is destiny.

WHY SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s a feel-good movie that doesn’t really hold up to a second viewing, thanks to its reliance on a series of deus ex machinae to advance the plot. Because the studio shortchanged the Indian child actors and karma is a bitch. Because Danny Boyle has a lot of – well, not enemies, but people he’s pissed off enough that they might not vote for him.

WHY THE READER WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s a well-made little film about a very big subject. Because it has forty minutes of Kate Winslet having sex and many more of her acting impeccably well. Because Holocaust films traditionally play well with the Academy. Because the Weinstein Company made a very big and very strong awards push late in the game.

WHY THE READER WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because it’s the umpteenth film about the Holocaust. Because there’s a really good movie waiting to be made about how Germans reacted to the Holocaust and this one only scratches the surface. Because the only reason it got nominated is because people really love Kate Winslet. Because there’s no real reason this movie should win Best Picture. Because it simply isn’t outstanding.

WHY FROST/NIXON WILL WIN BEST PICTURE: Because Ron Howard is very very very popular in Hollywood.

WHY FROST/NIXON WILL NOT WIN BEST PICTURE: Because he’s not so popular that most people are suddenly going to think this deserved its nomination, let alone a win.

WHY BRAD PITT WILL WIN BEST ACTOR FOR THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON: Because he had to find the essence of his character buried under pounds of old-age makeup – while the character itself was a young one, and Pitt had to portray that essential contradiction and did so very well. Because he is a longterm bankable star internationally and has kept multiple studios afloat by generating huge overseas receipts for crap like The Mexican or Troy, and deserves a little recognition for doing that while still trying to work on genuinely good projects. Because he is a character actor trapped in a leading man’s body. Because, beneath it all, he’s a movie geek who loves movies, and that’s the sort of person who should win awards. Because his movie is the biggest hit in this category.

WHY BRAD PITT WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTOR FOR THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON: Because Benjamin Button is a movie of, shall we say, questionable merit. Because it’s a loooooong movie of questionable merit. Because Pitt hasn’t done nearly enough truly magnificent work to merit an award for the sake of his career. Because he can’t keep his dick in his pants.

WHY FRANK LANGELLA WILL WIN BEST ACTOR FOR FROST/NIXON: Because he is a storied character actor who has never won an award. Because he was in the stage play before he was in the movie. Because originally he wasn’t going to be in the movie version until the producers and director decided nobody else could do that role like he could. Because he’s really tall and growly. Because he played Richard Nixon and knocked it out of the park. Because Ron Howard.

WHY FRANK LANGELLA WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTOR FOR FROST/NIXON: Because Frost/Nixon is a boring movie with two good performances in it. Because he’s not the sort of storied character actor with six billion memorable roles. Because he is a workhorse who just does good work quietly and people do not make a fuss about that sort of thing.

WHY RICHARD JENKINS WILL WIN BEST ACTOR FOR THE VISITOR: Because it was a once-in-your-life performance in a once-in-your-life opportunity. Because he was compelling for nearly two straight hours, owning his character and dominating the screen. Because sometimes voters want to give a nod to the compelling indie movie. Because Hollywood liberals can’t resist a liberal-message movie like this one.

WHY RICHARD JENKINS WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTOR FOR THE VISITOR: Because if voters are going to celebrate a great character actor this year, it’ll be the much older Frank Langella. Because Jenkins got no “big speech” or similar obvious character moment to which voters can point when explaining their vote to their friends. Because he’s a character actor, but the sort of character actor who earns “hey, it’s that guy” status rather than “hey, it’s Christopher Walken!” status. Because his movie got quietly released during the summer and people had the opportunity to forget about it.

WHY SEAN PENN WILL WIN BEST ACTOR FOR MILK: Because it’s timely, a movie about gay rights coming right on the heels of Proposition 8, and Hollywood voters will want to send a message. Because Penn inhabited his character fully and completely in a way that is rare. Because Penn is likely the greatest male actor currently working today, and definitely the greatest “officially” Method-trained actor. Because it’s the best sheer performance in this category.

WHY SEAN PENN WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTOR FOR MILK: Because he won a statue recently (for Mystic River). Because the timeliness of the award means Penn will get to deliver a painfully self-righteous speech that will make everybody, even his friends and ideological comrades, wince. Because Milk is so faithful to its source material that at times it comes across as slightly boring.

WHY MICKEY ROURKE WILL WIN BEST ACTOR FOR THE WRESTLER: Because it was the role that obviously required the most dedication and work in this category. Because Rourke didn’t just have to explore emotional pain, but a wide range of physical pain as well. Because the movie serves as an allegory for his life’s pattern. Because he is the comeback kid.

WHY MICKEY ROURKE WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTOR FOR THE WRESTLER: Because the hype for him came late in the voting season due to a later-than-average studio push. Because the subject matter of his film is comparatively declasse and that does hurt his chances. Because comeback or no, he’s still the guy who made Wild Orchid and Harley Davidson And The Marlboro Man. Because he looks like he will fuck your shit up.

WHY ANGELINA JOLIE WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR CHANGELING: Because she gave a good performance. Because she gave a good performance outside of her comfort zone, playing in a period piece that didn’t lend itself to her natural strengths. Because she’s one of the few relatively bankable actresses in Hollywood and people want to reward that sort of consistency. Because she’s just kind of cool.

WHY ANGELINA JOLIE WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR CHANGELING: Because she gave a good performance, but it was in a pretty mediocre movie. Because she scored a statue pretty early on in her career (for Girl, Interrupted) and while she’s great and all, she’s not “already needs two Academy Awards great” or “Meryl Streep great.” Because there is a chunk of Hollywood society that Does Not Approve of what she did to end up with Brad Pitt, and they unfortunately do vote for awards.

WHY MELISSA LEO WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR FROZEN RIVER: Because it was a tough, gritty, inspired performance, the kind that comes along once in most actors’ careers, and deserving of recognition. Because sometimes people decide they want the underdog to win. Because the screener campaign for the movie has been dedicated and has won over a lot of new fans.

WHY MELISSA RIVER WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR FROZEN RIVER: Because it was a tough, gritty, inspired performance that nobody saw before three weeks ago. Because nobody knows who she is. Because screener campaign or no, not enough people have seen the movie to give her the win. Because it was a once-in-an-actor’s-career performance, except that she’s not up against “most actors.”

WHY ANNE HATHAWAY WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR RACHEL GETTING MARRIED: Because she is a pretty, relatively young ingenue, and Oscar loves to give awards to pretty young ingenues. Because she is a pretty young ingenue, but also a pretty young ingenue with obvious acting talent. Because she took a complex role in a multilayered movie and made it the most compelling thing on screen. Because she’s a natural comedienne who worked in dramatic territory and did so with verve and poise.

WHY ANNE HATHAWAY WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR RACHEL GETTING MARRIED: Because Oscar loves pretty young ingenues, but a lot of voters hate pretty young ingenues, for all the reasons you might expect, and sometimes they don’t split off their votes. Because Jonathan Demme’s shakycam in the movie turned off a lot of viewers who might otherwise have voted for her. Because everybody remembers what happened with Mira Sorvino and doesn’t want to repeat that (and it already seems to be repeating itself with Halle Berry).

WHY MERYL STREEP WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR DOUBT: Because she is Meryl fucking Streep, the best goddamned actress of her generation and still the best actress working in Hollywood today. Because she took on a movie with some of the top rising talents in Hollywood and made everybody remember what real brilliance looks like. Because she looked like the Terminator in a wimple, until she didn’t. Because even though this is her fifteenth nomination – let me repeat that, her fifteenth – she’s only won the statue twice, and not since 1983.

WHY MERYL STREEP WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR DOUBT: Because she has fifteen nominations and is a living legend already. Because Doubt, fine performances aside, is a boring movie and nobody will be renting it in two years’ time, much less ten. Because there are actresses in the category even more overdue for a win than she is.

WHY KATE WINSLET WILL WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR THE READER: Because this is her fifth nomination and she hasn’t won a statue yet despite being probably the go-to actress under 35 for goddamned great work. Because she gave not one but two award-worthy performances this year (in this and Revolutionary Road) and the two together will form a juggernaut of support for her. Because The Reader has a lot of Kate Winslet having sex in it.

WHY KATE WINSLET WILL NOT WIN BEST ACTRESS FOR THE READER: Because The Reader is okay, but it’s not even close to her best work. Because people are used to not voting for Kate Winslet. Because the idea of Kate Winslet winning an Academy Award for a movie about the Holocaust after appearing in Extras as herself doing a movie about the Holocaust especially to win an Oscar is the sort of thing that makes voters go “eeep.”